Putin's chances of victory in Ukraine shrinking - The Economist

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Path to victory narrowing

According to The Economist, Russia’s plans to achieve significant battlefield success in Ukraine are becoming increasingly unrealistic. Expectations that negotiations in Geneva could secure concessions from Kyiv have not materialized, leaving the diplomatic track largely closed.

The outlet notes that between June 2021 and May 2024, Russian forces advanced only about 60 km in the Donetsk region, whereas in large-scale conflicts of the past, similar campaigns often involved advances of hundreds or thousands of kilometers.

Internal challenges for Kremlin

Structural problems inside Russia are compounding the situation. A shortage of trained soldiers, low morale, and rising desertion rates are undermining military effectiveness.

Restrictions on communications, including limitations affecting Telegram and the disruption of Starlink access, have further reduced troops’ access to critical communication and logistics channels.

Economic pressure

Even potential strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure are unlikely to change the course of the war.

Russia’s economy is facing rising debt, declining revenues, and growing difficulties reallocating resources, including reintegrating soldiers returning from the front.

Experts cited by the publication say Russia relies increasingly on financial incentives rather than patriotic motivation for recruitment, while insufficient support for veterans and compensation disputes with families of fallen soldiers are increasing recruitment costs.

Implications for Putin

Mounting internal pressures, economic strain, and limited military progress are challenging the ambitions of Vladimir Putin to be recognized as a historic leader.

The analysis suggests that even successful diplomatic maneuvers would not resolve the structural problems confronting the Kremlin both on the battlefield and domestically.

Separately, US President Donald Trump has extended sanctions against Russia for another year, maintaining restrictions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine and sustaining international pressure on Moscow.

At the same time, reports indicate Russia is engaging in talks with the United States focused on sanctions relief and potential economic deals rather than a peace settlement, while several European intelligence leaders privately assess the chances of ending the war this year as extremely low.