Head of Moldovan military intelligence: Ukraine may repeat the situation that arose in Georgia

Key questions:

• Why is there a risk of Russian revenge in Moldova in the near future?
• How do the miscalculations of President Maia Sandu affect her party?
• What is the influence of Russia in Moldova now?
• How can the victory of pro-Russian forces in Moldova be prevented?

On the last Sunday of September, in Moldova, parliamentary elections will take place. This will be one of the biggest political challenges for the country in decades – Russia is once again trying to take political revenge in the country and return it under its influence.

Last year, the pro-European Maia Sandu was re-elected as president of Moldova. But since the country is a parliamentary republic, the president’s powers are limited. It is precisely on this that the Kremlin counts, openly and indirectly supporting some political forces which, as a result of the elections, may form a pro-Russian government.

Why such a situation is developing in Moldova, for what reasons Russian influence remains, and how the most dangerous scenario can be prevented – read in the interview of Yuriy Brichag for RBC-Ukraine.

Threat of revenge of pro-Russian forces

Pro-Russian parties pose a serious threat to Moldova, as they have united before the elections scheduled for 28 September. According to Brichag, these parties have formed two blocs. The first – the Alternative bloc, headed by the mayor of Chisinau, Ion Ceban. It includes former Prosecutor General Oleksandr Stoyanoglo, Mark Kachuk, who previously was the ideologist of the Communist Party, and Ion Kiku,the prime minister under the presidency of Igor Dodon (2019–2022). The second bloc is headed by Irina Vlah, who headed the Gagauz autonomy for 10 years. It was joined by socialist Igor Dodon, ex-prime minister Vasile Tarlev, and former president Vladimir Voronin.

“The greatest danger is that these parties may enter the parliament and change the course of the Republic of Moldova toward Russia and not Europe,” Brichag emphasized.

He expressed concern that Moldova may repeat the fate of Georgia, where the pro-European president coexisted with a pro-Russian parliament that halted European integration.

“We may repeat, unfortunately, the situation that arose in Georgia, when at that time there was a pro-European president and at the same time a pro-Russian parliament was elected, and the parliament elected a cabinet of ministers,” he said.

According to him, even if Sandu remains president, the parliament and the ministers appointed by it will determine the fate of the country. He called for actively countering Russian influence to prevent such a scenario.

“We must speak about this, show and not allow the Russian Federation to influence the future of the Republic of Moldova,” Brichag summed up.

Anti-rating of Maia Sandu

Brichag explained that Sandu is considered the informal leader of the Action and Solidarity party, which has governed the country for four years already. However, instead of fulfilling pre-election promises, such as fighting corruption and improving the standard of living, the party, according to him, has not achieved significant results.

“Corruption has not been defeated, reforms in the legal sphere have not been carried out. Those who were accused of stealing the billion have not been punished,” he noted, referring to the 2014 scandal, when 1 billion US dollars was withdrawn from three Moldovan banks. Additionally, there has been no progress on the issue of reunification with Transnistria, which also causes dissatisfaction among the citizens.

Influence of Russian propaganda

“Russian propaganda still exists in Moldova, and the necessary measures to eradicate it have not been taken,” Brichag stated. He emphasized that non-profit organizations operating in the country represent Russian interests, and the authorities have not closed the relevant channels of influence. Brichag, who became a witness to the night attack on Ukraine on 28 August, noted that after returning to Chisinau, he plans to tell people about the consequences that Russia may bring if pro-Russian parties win the elections.

“I was a witness to the night attack on Ukraine on 28 August. And upon arrival home to Chisinau, I will convey to people those consequences that the Russian Federation may bring to our Republic of Moldova,” he added.

Balance of information influence

According to Brichag, there are significantly more pro-Russian agents of influence in Moldova than there should be. Historically, the electorate in the country is divided equally between pro-Russian and pro-European sentiments. This is explained by the fact that many Moldovans, especially the older generation, have close ties with Russia through work or memories of the Soviet Union.

“The main electorate of the socialists or communists is elderly people. They remember the Soviet Union, and Russia for them is associated with it,” he explained.

Additionally, the historical deportations of Moldovans to Russia and the subsequent resettlement of Russians in Moldova also influenced these sentiments.

Problem of Shor’s parties

Brichag compared Shor’s parties to “heads of the Zmey Gorynych” (the multi-headed dragon from Slavic folklore), noting that in place of one banned party, new ones appear.

“It seems to me, here it is necessary first to take more severe measures towards such parties. Perhaps it is worth changing the law so that these parties a priori do not appear,” he stated.

Brichag emphasized that such parties, financed from Russia, hide behind democracy to come to power. The speaker gave the example of Russia, where for the slightest manifestations of dissent, people are condemned, and called for more decisive measures against hybrid warfare.

“Against aggression or hybrid war it is necessary to act with tougher measures,” he stressed.

Question of Transnistria

Brichag agreed that there has been no progress on the issue of Transnistria, which testifies to the weakness of the current authorities.

“The fact that it has not brought closer the unification of the Republic of Moldova with the occupied region of Transnistria once again speaks about the weakness of the authorities,” he noted.

Brichag emphasized that residents of Transnistria have access to Chisinau and Europe, and 80% of youth there choose the European path, while only 20% – Russia. However, the authorities have been unable to utilize this support to promote unification.