Former top diplomat Volodymyr Yelchenko: Russia will inevitably betray the US, and we'll see a completely different Trump

Main topics

• Trump's warm attitude toward Russia
• About Trump's grudges against Ukraine
• Trump's desire to 'reshape' the US and the world

Volodymyr Yelchenko is one of the veterans of Ukrainian diplomacy. He is personally acquainted with both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Yelchenko served as Ukraine’s ambassador to Russia from 2010 to 2015 and as ambassador to the United States from 2019 to 2021. He was also Ukraine's permanent representative to the UN in 1997-2001 and 2015-2019.

In the interview with RBC-Ukraine, Volodymyr Yelchenko discussed what could save US-Ukraine relations, why Trump is attracted to Putin, and how the "honeymoon" between Russia and the US will end. He also shares his thoughts on when the world order established after World War II came to an end, why the UN would soon collapse on its own, and whether Trump wants to become the first dictator in US history.

You can watch the full interview on the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel. The main points of the conversation are summarized below.

Trump's warm attitude toward Russia

Just a month after Donald Trump’s second inauguration, the United States made the biggest shift in foreign policy in several generations. Now, White House representatives no longer recognize Russia as an aggressor, openly criticize Europe, threaten Canada, and vote at the UN in alignment with Russia, North Korea, Belarus, Sudan, Eritrea, Equatorial Guinea, Mali, Nicaragua, and Niger. Volodymyr Yelchenko says that one can only hope this is not a definitive change in US policy.

"I think, and I sincerely hope, that this is a grand strategic-diplomatic game. Although I don't believe that Trump personally devised all of this, his experience as a successful billionaire businessman, combined with the power he has gained and the experience from his previous term, gives him all the means and grounds to start such a game. On the other hand, we shouldn't overestimate his personal qualities, because he doesn’t just change his mind every day — he does so every hour or even every 15 minutes. And it depends on whom he has just met and spoken with. But as an experienced person, he is capable of analyzing all of that. And I think that after some time, maybe in a few weeks, we will see a completely different Donald Trump. I don't claim to know Trump very well personally, but I did present my credentials to him as an ambassador in Washington, and I had met with him several times before that, discussing various topics. I never got the impression of Trump that we see today. He does have some sympathies and some degree of positive sentiment toward Ukraine."

On the other hand, Yelchenko continues, Trump only goes to extremes when it comes to Ukraine. He speaks only positively about Russia and Putin.

"Honestly, this surprises me the most, although he is consistent in this regard. I have never heard him say anything particularly negative about Putin — not today, not a week ago, not even 10 years ago. There's a certain mystery in that. But if we recall his warm relations with even Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, then maybe he has something in common — not that I want to say with dictators, but he does have a certain sympathy for unconventional figures. For us, they may have a negative connotation, but for him, perhaps not."

Trump himself describes his relations with Putin as "very good," though they have only officially met a couple of times.

"Everyone knows their meeting during Trump's previous term in Helsinki. And that historic phrase when he came out and said he trusts Putin more than his own intelligence agencies. It sparked a wave of outrage and confusion in America. Beyond that, we don’t know much, but we do know more about Putin. And Putin, as a KGB-trained operative, and quite a skilled one, has experience in recruiting people and getting into their heads. I think he found ways to get into Trump’s mind. Maybe it goes back to the period when Trump lost the election to Biden and was not re-elected."

Volodymyr Yelchenko suggests that Putin may have successfully played on Trump’s resentment over not being re-elected for a second term in 2020. Trump never acknowledged his defeat, and the Russians may have encouraged him to maintain this belief. On the other hand, there is another explanation for Trump's loyalty to Russia. During the 2016 election campaign, media outlets, particularly American ones, reported that Russians were financing Trump’s campaign, and there was significant activity from Russian bot farms interfering in the election.

"That would be a full-fledged conspiracy theory in all caps. Honestly, I don’t believe it. Yes, there were rumors that when Trump first visited Russia in 1987, they put him under surveillance, that they followed him, and that Russian intelligence later maintained contact with him. But to state this definitively, evidence is needed. I don’t have such evidence, and no one else has provided proof either. So people can say whatever they want, but I think it's a bit unserious to consider that the president of the United States could be a Russian agent."

Yelchenko is convinced that the period of US-Russia friendship will not last long.

"Once Putin betrays Trump — and it will inevitably happen because I know how Russian diplomacy and the Russian establishment work — they won’t be able to sustain this honeymoon period. Sooner or later, they will trick Trump. Either they will backtrack on everything they promised him in Saudi Arabia, or they will simply start violating agreements between Russia and the US. And then we will see a completely different Trump — angry, cynical, and, as they say, things will get really tough."

About Trump's grudges against Ukraine

When discussing Trump's relations with the Ukrainian leadership, Yelchenko says it is worth acknowledging that Ukrainian politicians made certain mistakes in communicating with him. The first of these was that during the election campaign, Ukraine openly sided with the Democrats, while failing to maintain the necessary level of communication with the Republicans. On the other hand, Trump has a personal grudge against Ukraine that has persisted for many years.

"No matter what I may have previously said about his sympathy for Ukraine as a state, as a country, he probably still has some resentment deep inside, considering the well-known phone calls that partially led to the impeachment process."

Yelchenko refers to the infamous phone call in the summer of 2019 between Trump and Zelenskyy, during which the American president allegedly pressured his Ukrainian counterpart, demanding that Ukrainian law enforcement accuse Joe Biden and his son Hunter of corruption. Hunter had previously worked for a Ukrainian energy company. Trump allegedly hoped to push Joe Biden — his main rival in the 2020 presidential election — out of the race. To increase pressure, the White House froze $400 million in financial aid to Ukraine just an hour and a half after the call.

The transcript of this conversation was handed over to the US media. As a result, Ukraine, unwillingly, found itself at the center of a domestic political scandal in the US. Volodymyr Yelchenko became Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States right at the height of Trump's impeachment hearings in Congress. He recalls that everyone understood Ukraine did not want to be dragged into this process. Regardless, in Trump’s perception, the words "Ukraine" and "impeachment" remain closely linked.

"At that time — unlike the latest dispute between our presidents, which I believe should not have happened on either side — our government either did not react or responded in a fairly composed and intelligent manner, without excessive emotion. And as with all news, good or bad, the story lasted for a while and then disappeared from the headlines, and that was the end of it. Then COVID-19 started, and everyone was focused on the pandemic, forgetting about poor Ukraine. But Trump probably still associates Ukraine with something personally negative."

Yelchenko notes that Trump is who he is, and there is no way to change him. Since working with him will be necessary, Ukraine’s leadership needs to find ways to engage with him.

"Regardless of whether we like what Trump says, he is the president of the world's most powerful country, on which Ukraine depends 90%. Like it or not, we have to accept that not everyone likes or respects us as much as we would like. We need to grit our teeth, do our job, conduct private negotiations, and achieve our objectives."

On the other hand, Yelchenko argues that despite Trump's accusations that Ukraine is handling negotiations between Russia and the US unprofessionally, even if Ukrainian leadership had commented less publicly on the American president’s actions, it is unlikely this would have prevented conflicts with Trump.

"I would divide Trump's statements into two parts. The first concerns the war, Russian aggression, the peace agreement, and everything related to the war. The second involves Ukraine’s internal affairs, which amounts to interference in domestic matters. It is not for Trump to evaluate Zelenskyy’s approval rating or to tell us whether to hold elections — that is our decision. Everyone understands that there are different opinions in Ukraine about the elections — whether they should be, and who has whatever rating — but that is our business. And if you notice, apart from Trump, none of our other allies are even talking about this. That shows they understand, better than Trump does, that this is a red line that should not be crossed in interstate relations."

Currently, Yelchenko continues, Trump’s main priority is ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Therefore, he is dismissive of anything he sees as an obstacle to this goal.

"I think this is his fixation, and overall, that benefits us. The only potential downside is the terms on which Trump wants — or plans — to end the war."

Ending the Russia-Ukraine war is one of Trump's key campaign promises. So now, he is making every effort to fulfill it.

"Unlike in Ukraine, where most elected presidents forget their campaign promises within two or three days, in the US, public opinion, Congress, and voters ensure accountability. American journalists are not afraid to write what they think. So Trump understands that after a few weeks or months, he will be reminded of all his promises — not just regarding the Ukraine war but also domestic issues, where he made plenty of pledges but has yet to show results. That’s for Americans to worry about, not us. But he cannot ignore the fact that, eventually, people will ask, 'You promised — where is it?' Maybe in the heat of the moment, he forgets that it’s not just about ending the war but also about the conditions under which it ends. And I think he doesn’t fully grasp certain aspects. His remarks suggesting that Ukraine started the war and that Putin is not to blame, that Putin was 'forced' into this — those are blatant Russian narratives. I don’t know where he picked them up."

Overall, Yelchenko believes Ukrainians should approach negotiations more calmly and accept that they will not get everything they want.

"I think everyone already understands that Ukraine won’t be admitted to NATO tomorrow. I support NATO membership, I want Ukraine to join NATO tomorrow, but there are obstacles we cannot bypass. So we need to take a more measured approach. Yes, it’s frustrating because so much effort has been invested in this goal. But we still have the European Union. We should focus on that first — start accession negotiations with the EU and prioritize that. As for NATO — let’s first end this war, and then we can talk about NATO."

Despite the recent tensions between the Ukrainian and US governments, Yelchenko believes Ukraine’s leadership needs to focus on normalizing relations with Washington.

"The only way to preserve US-Ukraine relations is with a clear-headed approach and the understanding that without American support, Ukraine will not survive. That is the dilemma we need to accept. If we want to remain an independent state, we must do everything possible to find common ground with the US. Europe will take much longer to respond. And with all due respect, while Europe has helped us a lot, it could have done much more. And discussions about deploying a 30,000-strong military contingent in Ukraine. I said this eight years ago. And what? Nothing has come of it except words."

Yelchenko is convinced that Russia will never allow foreign troops to be stationed in Ukraine.

"There will never be such an agreement. Yet Trump claims that Putin told him he is not fundamentally opposed to it. That’s complete nonsense. An hour later, Lavrov comes out and says it will never happen. The entire war started under the pretext that Ukraine must not join NATO. So now, instead of NATO membership, there will be NATO troops on Ukrainian territory? And Russia will accept that? Does anyone seriously believe that?"

Trump's desire to 'reshape' the US and the world

After Donald Trump's second rise to power, not only did US policy toward Ukraine change, but enormous shifts also began within the country. Trump appointed conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers, bloggers, and morning show hosts to key positions. Elon Musk's interns demanded access to classified government information, while Musk himself fired officials at his discretion. Trump dismissed half of the CIA, and mass purges began in the Pentagon.

"The system of checks and balances that have existed in the US government for centuries has never allowed for a radical overhaul of the country’s policies. But now, something completely different is happening. However, I have hope — one that I believe is not unfounded — that the US Congress has not yet had its final say. In recent days, we’ve been hearing more and more criticism from Republicans in Congress, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. And not just any Republicans, but those who belong to the elite of the party and have held their seats for decades. I’m not even talking about governors—there have already been reports of conflicts between Trump and some of them. So far, these have been Democrats, but states in this country are truly independent; it is a genuinely federal system. If anyone thinks that everyone will simply sit back and follow the party line, that won’t happen. And let me emphasize again — there’s also the American press, which won’t ignore any of this. So I believe that at some point, whether Trump likes it or not, he will have to take this into account, adjust some of his priorities, and stop making such drastic moves. Because I can’t even imagine what else could happen — unless he suggests admitting Russia into NATO instead of Ukraine."

US foreign policy has also undergone drastic changes. While Trump himself praises Putin and Kim Jong Un, his administration has turned against Europe.

"For Trump’s team, the European Union is a competitor to the US. But I believe it’s a complementary competitor, one that actually helps the US. against China and Russia. It is by no means a competitor in a negative sense. So what does dismantling the EU and withdrawing American troops from Europe accomplish for the US? Returning to the isolationism of a hundred years ago, before World War II, brought America nothing good. If we recall the Marshall Plan and the overall outcomes of World War II, the US benefited immensely. Yes, it suffered great losses in that war, but it also profited. American business boomed after World War II. Before the war, there was the Great Depression, and paradoxically, the war helped America get back on its feet and become the powerful nation it is today. So I see no reason to dislike the EU or attempt to dismantle it."

Looking at Trump's domestic and foreign policies, some believe he could become the first dictator in US history — not fighting against the Axis of Evil, but leading it.

"I don’t believe that, because, once again, the American establishment and what is called the deep state simply won’t allow it. Even if he wants it. But I still sincerely hope that what he truly wants is something else — to win a Nobel [Peace] Prize and retire."

Moreover, Yelchenko continues, such a radical shift in US policy and Trump’s attempt to divide the world into spheres of influence among major powers is a direct path to World War III.

"If he wants to split the world and redraw its borders, that means China will seize Taiwan tomorrow, half of Africa will fall into war, because if you look at the map, Africa was arbitrarily divided with a ruler. The number of territorial claims and conflicts there is immense. We talk about Taiwan, but Southeast Asia is also full of unresolved disputes — China vs. Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore in the South China Sea. Then there’s the issue of nuclear proliferation. If such global chaos begins, believe me, within a year, in addition to the five officially recognized nuclear states and four unrecognized ones, there are about 40 entry states that could develop nuclear weapons. Many of them are in Southeast Asia — Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia — all of them could produce nuclear weapons within months. Then there’s Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which may have fewer technological capabilities but vast financial resources — they could simply buy the weapons. The nuclear non-proliferation regime is already degrading, and if these trigger conflicts begin, no one will be able to stop the process. That would lead to what I call World War III. And I don’t think Trump wants that. If he doesn’t realize it yet, I am sure that at some point, he will be made to understand. Though, honestly, we have already survived so much that neither World War III nor IV scares us anymore."

Regardless of what Trump does, Yelchenko is convinced that there will be no return to the post-WWII world order.

"I believe it has already been destroyed. And this is proven by the utter insignificance and lack of principles of the United Nations. In my opinion, this organization is rapidly heading toward the fate of the League of Nations. Some may find my prediction surprising, but I believe the UN’s fate will be sealed when the US either withdraws from the organization or stops paying its dues — since it funds about a third of the UN’s budget and peacekeeping operations. Without American money, the UN will simply collapse on its own."

Volodymyr Yelchenko, who worked for many years at the UN, including as Ukraine’s Permanent Representative, is convinced that the organization has outlived its usefulness, despite its many defenders.

"People say we shouldn’t touch the UN because we won’t create anything better. But my question is — should we just sit and wait for it to collapse on its own and do nothing? Nobody likes it, everyone understands that the veto power is wrong, that Russia illegally occupies a seat in the UN and the Security Council as the ‘successor’ to the Soviet Union. They just invented that term — there is no such concept as ‘successor state’ in international law."

Instead, Yelchenko argues that after the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, a new organization should emerge.

"It’s possible to imagine a situation where the countries that win this war will establish a new organization. And I am confident that Ukraine will be among them and will have a say. Just as we were founding members of the UN in 1945, we will once again be one of the co-founders of whatever replaces it. I don’t know what it will be called, but I sincerely believe that something new will be created."