Ukraine war may shift to de-escalation by late 2025 or spring 2026
Illustrative photo: the war in Ukraine may enter a phase of de-escalation at the end of the year or in the spring of 2026 (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
The full-scale war in Ukraine could transition into a phase of de-escalation by the end of this year or spring 2026, said political analyst Oleh Saakian, in a commentary to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
Saakian noted that both Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump need a narrative of victory regarding the war in Ukraine. He predicts that after a few months of strategic maneuvers, a new escalation phase will begin, lasting until late 2025 or spring 2026.
“However, with Trump, the war will likely not drag on for decades. Instead, the process will intensify, exhausting Russia at a much faster pace,” the analyst explained.
Diplomatic battlefield
Saakian emphasized that Ukraine will not have to make many of the concessions under discussion, but will have to engage in a constant and challenging diplomatic fight.
“On one hand, agreeing, on the other, introducing new variables, and proposing alternatives. Ukraine's main battleground now will be diplomacy rather than the front lines, although the latter remains critical for shaping the outcome,” he added.
Saakian believes that once negotiations between Trump and Putin are announced, a new stage of diplomatic struggle will begin. During this phase, Kyiv will need to work closely with the Republican leader, his team, and key representatives.
This effort will largely occur behind closed doors but will also involve public communications. Simultaneously, Ukraine must coordinate with European partners and a coalition of states that significantly influence US positions. This is where Ukraine's primary diplomatic struggle is currently focused.
“Ukraine must always be a part of the solution, not just a part of the problem. This, in my view, should become the central fixation of Ukrainian diplomacy,” Saakian concluded.
Possible negotiations between Russia and Ukraine
Recently, Western countries have been increasingly raising the issue of possible negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, especially after Trump's election as president of the United States.
Trump has expressed support for the idea of ending the war as soon as possible and believes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is ready to reach a peace agreement with Russia. At the same time, Trump may impose new economic sanctions against Russia if Putin refuses to negotiate.
In addition, it was reported that Trump had instructed his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, to end the war in Ukraine within 100 days.
