ua en ru

Russians will soon lose Bakhmut if the offensive trend continues - military expert

Russians will soon lose Bakhmut if the offensive trend continues - military expert Ukrainian military repel the Russian advance in the Lyman-Kupiansk direction (Photo: Getty Images)

After 50 days of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Defense Forces are attempting to advance in three directions. At the same time, the Russians are trying to disrupt it by launching an attack near Svatove.

Military expert Colonel Vladyslav Seleznov commented on the situation on the frontlines, prospects for the offensive, and the liberation of Bakhmut.

As for the Lyman-Kupiansk direction, the enemy is likely attempting to advance along the Svatove-Borova line. However, it's unclear why they are pushing with significant forces in that direction. Perhaps the Russians are trying to establish a frontline along the left bank of the Oskil River to later engage in negotiations with Ukraine, taking into account the "new realities." But, in my opinion, the balance between territorial gains and losses is a rather strange story. The Russians are suffering tremendous losses while trying to push back our Defense Forces.

Interestingly, the enemy has deployed operational reserves in this area, including the so-called 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Division, an elite unit comprised of the best of the best.

Recently, there was information that the Russians supposedly occupied three villages in this direction, but the spokesperson of the Operational Command East of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Serhii Cherevatyi, did not confirm it.

As I see it, the situation is as follows: the enemy might have moved forward and occupied some settlements, but our forces launched a counter-offensive and regained the territory. Now that they have reached the new frontlines and positions, they need to consolidate them. The battles there are hellish, with both sides having almost equal resources, as the Russians lack a significant advantage in weaponry. Of course, they have more capabilities in aviation and artillery, but there's a certain parity in terms of personnel and armored vehicles. So, the movement of enemy troops toward Borova was attempted, but it didn't result in territorial gains.

Most likely, all of this is to divert some of our resources from the Bakhmut direction, where the Russians are facing a genuinely critical situation. Our forces there are advancing to the south and north of the city, and if the momentum continues, they might lose Bakhmut.

Though our advancement may not be massive, it is steady. It's clear that the enemy is also suffering significant losses. The Ukrainian army acts in a very methodical and cautious manner, without resorting to "meat grinder" tactics, which are favored by occupying forces. With the advantage of precision artillery, we are depleting their resources, and in such conditions, the enemy has every chance of losing control of Bakhmut.

Russian propaganda has been talking about the necessity of capturing Bakhmut for at least eight months, turning it into a symbolic city, second in significance in Ukraine after Kyiv. If they lose it, it will raise questions among their Z-patriots. I believe that the Russian generals are keen on maintaining control. Otherwise, they won't be able to explain why they sacrificed so many people and then lost Bakhmut so ineptly.

In the south, our advance is slowed down by dense minefields and desperate resistance from the Russians. The only way to speed it up is through complete air superiority, but we lack an advantage in aviation and air defense systems. The only potential advantage we have is in high-precision long-range artillery.

By the way, in the area of Vasilivka, Zaporizhzhia region, there are occupiers from the 810th Marine Brigade, which is stationed in Kozacha Bay, Sevastopol. Many of them are traitors who switched to the Russian side. Now, they have been urgently transferred to this frontline area by aircraft, as they are seen as a serious threat to the Russian formations.

I don't think that in the near future, we will be able to cover such a distance in the south to speak of liberating Melitopol. It's more likely that the advancement will be slow, and gradual, but inevitable.