Russia preparing a major strike? Expert estimates maximum number of missiles enemy can launch
Illustrative photo: the maximum number of missiles Russia can launch (Getty Images)
Russia is carrying out mass attacks not only across the entire territory of Ukraine. These can be localized strikes as well, states aviation expert Valerii Romanenko in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
There is a trend that mass strikes may not only target the entire territory of Ukraine but could also have a targeted or zonal nature.
"Take, for example, the strikes in recent months, when they were carried out on Kyiv, while only individual drones or missiles were launched across the rest of Ukraine, or now the strike on Odesa. This is generally quite dangerous," explained Romanenko.
The expert emphasized that if a mass strike targets a specific area, air defense systems may not always be able to intercept all the targets, as they are spread across the entire territory.
At the same time, he reminded that the number of intercepted cruise missiles is usually no less than 85%. This is even though Ukraine has a large territory and major cities that also need to be protected by air defense systems. According to him, what is provided by partners is critically insufficient.
How many missiles can Russia use in total
Romanenko noted that the Defense Intelligence had provided information on the production of Russian missiles. According to the expert, they reported that the Russian forces are focusing on ballistic missiles.
"They have increased the production of ballistic missiles – Iskander, Kinzhal – to a total of 40-50 missiles per month. This information was as of July 18. If we take part of July, August, September, October, and November, that's about 150 missiles. At that time, the stock was at least that much, though I think, from memory, it was around 190 missiles," he said.
The expert emphasized that they will not use all of their reserves but noted that they have a maximum of 300-350 missiles.
Romanenko pointed out that the Russian forces must keep some in reserve but could use up to 200-250 missiles.
"Of course, this will not be a one-time launch. But still, this is only the ballistic missiles. They also launch Kh-101 missiles at approximately the same rate – 40-50 missiles per month. They also launch Kalibrs and cruise Iskanders. However, the quantities there are much smaller, about half," he said.
How many missiles can Russia use at once
The analyst noted that the Russian army still has Kh-22 and Kh-32 missiles, which they can launch from Tu-22M3 bombers. Additionally, according to the expert, Russian forces can still strike Odessa with Onyx missiles, which are also being launched, albeit in smaller quantities.
Moreover, Romanenko pointed out that we should not forget about the Kinzhal missiles launched from MiG-31 aircraft.
"Although the pace of production there is quite unclear. The Defense Intelligence says it's between two and six per month. That's a significant difference. Even if we take an average of 3 missiles per month, those ten MiG-31s that the Russians can launch simultaneously could participate quite actively in the strikes," he said.
Overall, Romanenko summarized that in the European part of Russia, they have up to 20 bombers in flight-ready condition.
"Tu-95... They are capable of deploying a squadron – 9 aircraft. 9 aircraft, if they carry 4 Kh-101 missiles each, that would be 36 missiles at once. Plus MiGs, plus ballistic missiles. These are Russia's maximum capabilities. And at a minimum, they are capable of launching up to 150 Shaheds in one night," emphasized the analyst.
The Center for Countering Disinformation emphasized that Russia is already prepared for a new wave of mass strikes.
