Russia building up forces in Belarus? Expert assesses likelihood of offensive against Ukraine
Illustrative photo: expert assesses the likelihood of a possible offensive against Ukraine from Belarus (Getty Images)
Ukraine needs to closely monitor the redeployment of Russian troops to Belarus, analyzing their positioning, composition, and potential targets, states Israeli military analyst David Sharp in a comment to RBC-Ukraine’s YouTube channel.
"If a grouping is being redeployed to Belarus, it must be taken with full seriousness. One should observe, monitor its deployment, its composition, and conclude what it is capable of," Sharp believes.
In his opinion, the appearance of a grouping in Belarus, even with a minimal offensive configuration, is already a signal to assess its capabilities, particularly regarding a potential offensive against Ukraine.
According to Israeli military analyst David Sharp, if significant Russian forces are redeployed to Belarus, it could theoretically indicate preparations for a new offensive against Ukraine.
"Everyone should assess what such a force could do, whether it’s capable of attacking Ukraine, and what it all means. So yes, if large forces are moved to Belarus, it would theoretically signal preparations for an offensive," he said.
However, Sharp points out that currently he sees no signs of Russia having any "extra" groupings not already engaged or planned for use on key fronts.
"I don’t think Russia has a spare grouping that is not involved somewhere or planned for involvement on the main sections of the front, and that could simply be moved to Belarus. The second option is shifting substantial forces from active fronts to create an additional threat to Kyiv," he noted.
Sharp emphasized that if it’s not just isolated units, but a truly significant force being moved to Belarus, the threat must be taken seriously, and such a move would be hard to miss.
"We must keep a close watch. If it’s more than a couple of squadrons and 500 troops, if it’s something substantial, then the threat could be real. And this process, it’s important to understand, should not go unnoticed," he stressed.
Situation on the border with Belarus
In February, border guards reported no unusual activity on the border between Ukraine and Belarus. However, the combat readiness of Belarusian troops continues to be tested, and Ukrainian border guards are monitoring the situation.
Additionally, Russia and Belarus are scheduled to hold joint military exercises, Zapad-2025, this autumn. As noted earlier by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, every exercise serves a purpose—one of which is the covert formation of offensive troop groupings.
Andrii Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (SBGSU), stated that the situation on the Belarusian border remains unchanged for now, although the direction still poses a threat. If Russian troops begin moving into Belarus, the SBGSU will receive information about it.
