Expert explains Russian threats with Oreshnik missile and reminds about red flag

Yesterday, on May 7, Russian public channels began spreading another scare story, claiming that Russian President Vladimir Putin allegedly instructed the Russian Ministry of Defense to "identify targets for an Oreshnik strike on Kyiv."

According to these narratives, the Kremlin is supposedly preparing to respond to some "Ukrainian provocations" if there is no agreement on Putin's proposed three-day ceasefire ahead of May 9.

Instead, Stupak stated that this was a threat directed at Ukraine, Kyiv, and personally at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — essentially saying, "Don’t even think of ruining our holiday, or we’ll strike with the Oreshnik."

He noted that for those who are worried and uncertain about what might happen, he sees two options:

"The first — if you have the opportunity, leave without panic for these two days to visit your grandmother or distant relatives. Take advantage of this option," he said.

At the same time, for those who can’t leave, he advised closely following the official resources of the US Embassy in Ukraine.

He recalled that the last time Russia planned to use the Oreshnik, the US side posted a notice 72 hours in advance, warning of an increased threat to US citizens in Ukraine, and all American companies dismissed their staff.

Following this, European diplomatic missions followed suit, and eventually, Oreshnik missiles really did hit Ukraine.

"That time, the Oreshnik did indeed strike Ukraine. So, to me, this is the second red flag that should alert us that Russia may be planning to use the missile again. But it's imprecise. My conclusion is that the likelihood of its use is close to zero — small, but still there,” he noted.

You can read more about the missile in the New missile: How Oreshnik turns into Kedr and who Putin's threats are directed at material.