Ukrainian expert assesses chances of Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in Istanbul

"The meeting (between Zelenskyy and Putin - ed.) is currently close to zero, but not absolutely. I think Putin could come to Istanbul if Donald Trump insists very strongly. If Putin realizes that Trump could pull out of the negotiations, then he may need to respond to Zelenskyy," the political scientist noted.

Psychological duel of leaders

In his opinion, Putin might accept the "sharp tactical struggle", and then the meeting with Zelenskyy could take place. However, this remains unlikely for now.

"But even if it does happen, I don’t expect any concrete results. It’s not about negotiations; it’s more of a psychological duel. Like a stare-off before a championship match. When two boxers stare at each other and apply psychological pressure. Something similar could happen between Putin and Zelenskyy," the expert predicted.

Handshake between Zelenskyy and Putin

According to Fesenko, such a psychological duel could be interesting from the perspective of how each leader behaves. However, expecting a handshake between them is unlikely, although such a possibility is already being discussed.

"Well, it’s almost certain to say that it’s unacceptable for Zelenskyy. Putin's hand is toxic, both literally and figuratively. I think Putin himself doesn’t want it either. But this is in stark contrast to what happened between Zelenskyy and Putin in 2019, or, for example, between Poroshenko and Putin in 2015. Back then, they also discussed whether to respond to a handshake or not. And they agreed that it was necessary," Fesenko explained.

However, after the full-scale war initiated by Putin, a real handshake seems highly unlikely, the political scientist added.

"It’s just unrealistic. So, the psychological atmosphere, the video of how they react to each other, that’s what will be interesting. However, it’s not about negotiations. It’s more about a political psychological duel, not negotiations as such," the political scientist said.

Meeting of Ukrainian and Russian delegations

Overall, according to Fesenko, the meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations could take place on May 15.

"The likelihood of such negotiations on May 15 has significantly increased after Trump's statement. We cannot refuse; the Russians have proposed it, so some negotiations must take place. So the probability of negotiations is quite high. But I don’t expect any results from these negotiations. The format and level of the negotiations are still unknown," explained the political scientist.

Mediator in Ukraine-Russia talks

Fesenko is confident that, in any case, the delegations will need a mediator in Istanbul. However, there is still no answer as to whether this will be Türkiye or the United States, which raises doubts about the results of the negotiations.

"It’s about a third party. It’s hard for me to imagine how the representatives of Russia and Ukraine would conduct negotiations after such a war. In 2022, it was possible, but now the situation is completely different. This means that reaching any agreements by May 15 is unlikely," the political scientist believes.

According to Fesenko, it is possible to agree on continuing the negotiations, but Russia may deliberately drag out the talks and merely simulate them.

Negotiations in Istanbul

Recall that on the night of May 11, Russian leader Vladimir Putin held a press conference. During it, he rejected the ceasefire proposed by Ukraine, the US, and the Coalition of the Willing for 30 days.

Instead, Putin suggested resuming negotiations in Istanbul on May 15, continuing from where they left off in 2022.

Later, Türkiye officially declared its readiness to act as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed Ukraine's willingness to engage in dialogue but emphasized the necessity of a ceasefire.

He also stated that he is personally ready to meet Putin in Istanbul on May 15 and expects the same from the Russian leader.