Demographer assesses possibility of Ukraine's population decreasing to 25 million

"I always say that 25 million is a fairly pessimistic, but not the most pessimistic scenario. In other words, we need to be prepared for the possibility that our population could be much smaller than 25 million," said Aksionova.

According to her, the Institute of Demography is developing many different scenario-based projections, but it's impossible to predict everything. It all depends on how long the war will last.

"The war, its factor, is the key here. And what will its intensity be? If its intensity decreases, we can hope for the best. But if there are such shelling and attacks as we are seeing now, this will influence the fact that many people will consider migrating abroad," the demographer explained.

Aksionova noted that due to the war, many Ukrainians will try to protect themselves and their children's lives by fleeing abroad. Therefore, she said, it is currently difficult to predict how many people will remain in Ukraine.

"We make certain assumptions based on this situation, the experience of which we already have. But right now, it seems to me that there is a lot we cannot predict because we lack that experience. And this experience is constantly being forced upon us. We keep revisiting these forecasts over and over again. And I even fear that 25 million may at some point seem overly optimistic. Right now, it is the tragedy of the war, and we must realize that," she added.

Population of Ukraine

It is worth noting that Ukraine's population has decreased by nearly 7 million due to the war. According to the Institute of Demography and Social Quality Problems of the National Academy of Sciences, this troubling trend is expected to continue.

At the beginning of 2022, Ukraine's population was 42 million. However, by 2024, it has dropped to 35.8 million. By 2051, the number of Ukrainians could fall to as low as 25.2 million.