Could Zapad-2025 drills in Belarus pose danger to Ukraine? Border service responds
Photo: The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine sees no threat of Russian invasion during the Zapad 2025 military exercises (Getty Images)
The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine spokesperson, Andriy Demchenko, told RBC-Ukraine that the joint military exercises of Russia and Belarus, scheduled to end on September 16, do not pose a direct threat of invasion into Ukraine.
“We are, fortunately, not observing any activity toward our border. Nor are we seeing any forces being formed or concentrated on the territory of Belarus in the direction of Ukraine,” Demchenko said.
Russia has deployed only a small number of its forces and assets to Belarus for these drills. The majority of those taking part are Belarusian armed forces units.
“As for the number of Russian troops involved in the drills in Belarus — for example, in 2023 Russia kept up to 13,000 of its personnel there. These were various units, including with equipment. Now it is many times fewer,” Demchenko explained.
He noted that when it comes to Russia’s contribution, the forces involved are insufficient to pose a significant threat to Ukraine or its border.
“Of course, we cannot rule out provocations. And every unit of Ukraine’s Defense Forces has been warned to monitor any actions or movements that could come from the territory of Belarus. But in terms of a large-scale invasion, these forces are clearly insufficient,” Demchenko said.
According to Demchenko, Russia is using drills for psychological influence.
“In other areas as well. Because this is a platform not only on Belarusian territory but also in Russia, under the guise of joint exercises, where they demonstrate their strength, trying to show that Russia ‘must be reckoned with,’” Demchenko summarized.
Russian-Belarusian exercise Zapad-2025
Belarus’s Defense Ministry recently announced the launch of joint maneuvers with Russia called Zapad-2025. The active phase of these drills runs from September 12 to 16. The main activities are taking place in Belarus, and partly in Russia.
The officially declared goal is to test combat readiness and cooperation between the two countries in security protection and repelling aggression.
At first, Minsk emphasized that these were planned and regular maneuvers. However, later the rhetoric shifted — now they are explained as a response to the “militarization” of Poland and the Baltic states.
According to Lithuanian intelligence, about 30,000 troops may take part in the exercises. Approximately 8,000 are expected to be stationed in Belarus, around 2,000 of whom are Russian servicemen.
For the duration of the drills, Poland and Lithuania have closed their airspace along their border with Belarus.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has called on the Belarusian authorities to avoid provocations and not to move military units closer to the Ukrainian border during Zapad-2025.
The head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, warned that the exercises would be accompanied by a large-scale information campaign. According to him, most of the fakes and disinformation efforts will come from Russia.
He also noted that during the drills, maneuvers are being practiced in the “western direction of the theater of military operations.” According to him, this is more a demonstration of force aimed at Europe, primarily the Baltic states, rather than Ukraine.
Today it also became known that Russia has expanded the Zapad-2025 drills to the Kaliningrad region, which borders Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east.
