Can Russia significantly intensify its offensive? Expert assessment

The expert pointed out that Russia has no reserves, except for those it replenishes monthly. It is effectively recruiting as many new soldiers as it loses.

“The difference is negligible. There’s even a negative balance; they can recruit fewer than they lose. They don’t have any other additional reserves, even if they could mobilize 100,000, 200,000, or 50,000, they simply don’t have them. Well, they have them, but they don’t use them. Because to bring a large number of troops into the war, they would need full mobilization,” he clarified.

According to Hetman, Russia can only increase its troops at a specific location by relocating forces along the front line.

“So, it’s not worth believing Russian propaganda that they can do something significant by launching the next operation because they don’t have it. They haven’t increased their forces or means,” he added.

The expert clarified that not all Russian troops on the front line are engaged in combat. There should be 2-3 lines for tactical rotation, including withdrawing assault brigades.

“They can leave all reserves. But again, as President (Volodymyr Zelenskyy - ed.) said, there are 64,000 Russians in the Kursk direction. There aren’t even 65,000. There are still 64. What they could do, they did. They have no chance of breaking through to Sumy, for example,” he said.

Theoretically, the enemy could double or triple the number of troops in the Kursk region to begin an offensive on the Sumy region. But then Russia would have to withdraw soldiers from other directions.

“And where they withdraw, we will strike,” he added.

Russia's plans

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently said that Russia is preparing for new offensives in Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia regions.

According to the President, Russia is amassing troops in the Kursk region to attack the Sumy region.