Blackmail or theater? Why Putin may threaten with Yars ballistic missile
Photo: Vladimir Putin resorts to nuclear blackmail again (Getty Images)
Russia may conduct another training and combat launch of the RS-24 Yars intercontinental missile as soon as tonight. Unlike the once-mythical Oreshnik, the Yars has long been in the enemy's arsenal and is fully operational, states aviation expert and former test engineer at Antonov Design Bureau, Kostiantyn Kryvolap, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Is Putin pulling out the Yars? What the Main Intelligence Directorate warns about
Today, the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine announced that on the night of May 19, the Russians plan to carry out a "training and combat" launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile.
The missile in question is the RS-24 (Yars). The purpose of this launch is demonstrative pressure and intimidation of Ukraine along with its partners from the European Union and NATO.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the missile will be equipped with a training warhead. It will be launched by a crew from the 433rd Guards Missile Regiment of the 42nd Missile Division, which is part of the 31st Army of Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces. The launch site is located near the town of Svobodny in Russia's Sverdlovsk region. The distance to Ukraine's borders from there is about 2,000 km. However, there is no information about the missile's intended flight path.
Photo: The distance from the Yars launch site to Ukraine is about 2,000 km (calcmaps.com)
According to intelligence reports, the range of this three-stage solid-fuel missile exceeds 10,000 km.
On May 12-13, Russia closed the airspace over the Kapustin Yar test range in the Astrakhan region. The US Embassy in Ukraine warned of a possible large-scale strike, sparking rumors that Russia might be planning to launch the Oreshnik missile again. The Oreshnik was first showcased during a strike on the Pivdenmash factory in Dnipro in November 2024.
However, Ukraine's Defense Intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, reassured Ukrainians by stating that if there is a real threat, there will be a warning from the Main Intelligence Directorate. This suggests a fairly high probability of a "training and combat" launch of the Yars.
Details about the RS-24 Yars missile
"The Russians do indeed have a functioning intercontinental ballistic missile. It has passed all tests, is in service, and there have been more or less normal launches. It’s not an 'unparalleled' missile, but it is fully operational," aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap told RBC-Ukraine.
Currently, Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces have six divisions with 18 self-propelled Yars launchers. According to Kryvolap, Moscow periodically uses tactical nuclear triad exercises to intimidate the world.
The Yars appeared in the 2000s as a replacement for another intercontinental system, the Topol-M. Its declared purpose is a nuclear retaliatory strike in case of aggression. That is, to deliver nuclear warheads thousands of kilometers away. The Yars was officially adopted in late 2009.
The RS-24 is based on the Topol missile. It is equipped with a warhead consisting of 3 to 6 separate nuclear blocks. Each has a yield of about 500 kilotons, dozens of times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Its maximum range reaches up to 12,000 km. The missile's speed exceeds Mach 20 in the final stage. Decoys, a complex trajectory, and hypersonic blocks make the Yars extremely difficult to intercept.
For more details, read RBC-Ukraine's report "Up to 12,000 km of danger: Why Russia's RS-24 Yars missile poses nuclear threat."
Why Putin is trying to scare Ukraine and the West with a non-nuclear Yars
If the Russians do launch the intercontinental ballistic missile, it will likely be with a conventional unitary warhead, Kryvolap emphasizes. He believes that after the experiments with the Oreshnik, Kremlin President Putin has little else to show.
"I was sure there were two or three units of the Oreshnik. But they launched one at Dnipro, the second burned down, and the third, most likely, didn't exist," the expert said.
He also calls the Yars a three-stage missile that was the prototype for the RS-26 Rubezh, which, in turn, never went into series production. For the Oreshnik, they basically left two stages and attached a mock nuclear warhead weighing 1.5-2 tons.
"These chunks of concrete fly at very high speed, blaze, look terrifying, but they can't seriously hit anything," Kryvolap noted.
The launch location is also notable. While the Oreshnik was launched from Kapustin Yar, about 800 km from Dnipro, Ukrainian intelligence says the Yars is planned to be launched from the Sverdlovsk region.
"That's why they are forced to launch it somewhere beyond the Urals — they can’t do it any closer, they need to stay within that distance (as it was with the Oreshnik, – ed.). And even then, I believe it will be very difficult," the expert added.
Regarding the purpose of such a demonstrative launch, Kryvolap agrees it has no military significance.
"Only political. In such a time, it just needs to be endured. One should be ready for this Yars on the one hand, but not spread panic. It definitely won't become a game-changer. It will only show that Putin can issue threats, raise the stakes, that he is supposedly all-powerful, and doesn't care about sanctions. But just as negotiations are a theater for Trump, so are Putin’s threats with the Yars... just a theater for Trump and for Europe," Kryvolap emphasized.
As a reminder, in early May, Putin issued nuclear threats against Ukraine, claiming that Western missile strikes were allegedly trying to provoke Russia into a nuclear response. He also cynically expressed hope that "there was no need to use the weapon."
Today, media outlets are circulating a new statement from him, in which he says the war against Ukraine is meant to achieve a "desired result" that would supposedly ensure Russia's security.
