Winter is coming: Why Ukraine's energy sector depends on strikes against Russia

Contents

• Upcoming winter could be the hardest yet
• Russia threatens safety of Ukrainian nuclear plants
• Why winter energy security depends on Ukraine's ability to strike Russia

Upcoming winter could be the hardest yet

Russia continues to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leaving the country heavily dependent on its three operational nuclear power plants and electricity imports from the European Union. According to Associated Press, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal warned that Ukraine could face its most difficult winter yet.

Last week, the Prime Minister called energy resilience one of the country’s greatest challenges for the coming months.

“We’ve successfully made it through three heating seasons, but the upcoming winter could be the hardest,” he said.

Shmyhal explained that Ukraine, with European partners' support, is working on decentralizing its power generation to make the energy system less vulnerable to attacks. Greenpeace estimates that decentralized solar generation, harder to damage with missiles and drones, could accelerate power restoration, but would require investments of almost $5 billion by 2030.

According to the UN and World Bank, Ukraine lost over half of its power generation capacity in the first 14 months of the full-scale war, and the situation is deteriorating.

The US and its allies are actively enhancing Ukraine’s air defense capabilities to protect the energy grid, said Jeffrey Pyatt, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources, at the 9th Annual Energy Conference in Washington. Pyatt hopes Ukraine will reach 15 GW of generating capacity by winter, though this would still be 3 GW short of the expected demand.

As a result, Pyatt warned that power outages are likely across all regions this winter. Particular concern lies with Kharkiv, which has suffered significant damage to its energy infrastructure.

Following recent strikes on maneuverable power generation, Ukraine’s National Bank downgraded its forecast for energy shortages: from 6.5% to 10% in Q3 2024, from 7% to 12% in Q4, and from 7% to 13% in Q1 2025. Given the high risk of renewed attacks, predicting the winter energy situation remains difficult. Even if deficits are small in the fall, they are expected to rise during the winter months.

Russia threatens safety of Ukrainian nuclear plants

Further Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure could trigger a crisis at one of the country’s three nuclear plants, according to Bloomberg.

Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko told Bloomberg that Ukraine operates thousands of substations, but the fate of 10 key hubs tied to nuclear plants is critical. Their destruction could plunge the country into darkness and provoke a nuclear emergency. Halushchenko warned that Russia’s attacks deliberately heighten nuclear risks near Europe’s borders.

“They know exactly what they're doing. It is no coincidence that they are attacking substations critical to nuclear safety,” he said.

Substations regulate high-voltage transmission in the grid, and nuclear power generation requires a constant electricity flow to maintain safety systems. Without this flow, reactor fuel could overheat, risking radiation release.

Due to these risks, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has expanded its monitoring mission to include substations—a rare move for an agency usually focused on nuclear materials, not national power grids. Ukraine agreed to this expansion, Halushchenko confirmed.

The IAEA’s actions come two years after its 24/7 presence was established at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. According to Bloomberg, the war is pushing the agency to broaden its authority.

Concerns are compounded by a shortage of air defense systems. Recent strikes caused blackouts across much of Ukraine, disrupting power supplies to nuclear plants. On August 26, an attack on substations involved over 230 drones and missiles. “The problem is how much they launch at once. It’s a challenge to defend against,” said the minister.

Since Ukraine does not engage in direct negotiations with Russia, it has asked third-party countries to intervene on its behalf. “We have communicated to all partners,” Halushchenko said, referencing India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who visited Kyiv in August.

Halushchenko added that many around the world do not fully grasp the risks. Further Russian attacks could have dire consequences, not only for Ukraine but also for Europe.

Why winter energy security depends on Ukraine’s ability to strike Russia

As the US deliberates lifting restrictions on the use of long-range missiles to target Russian territory, Ukrainian nuclear plants face growing risks. Currently, Washington seems hesitant to approve ATACMS, though it may ease restrictions on the British Storm Shadow, which contains US components.

“That won’t be enough,” Politico quoted former US Special Representative for Ukraine, Kurt Volker. If these negotiations are accurate, then energy officials will be among the most concerned.

They fear this winter could be a turning point in the energy war, with Russia adapting its tactics to cripple Ukraine’s energy system. The supply of Iran’s Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles will assist Moscow in this effort.

Ukraine expects Russia to use these missiles to strike logistics and communication hubs behind the front lines, freeing up Russia’s long-range missiles to concentrate on civilian energy infrastructure.

Critical substations that power the Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and South Ukrainian nuclear plants may be targeted. Should these be knocked out, reactors would have to be rapidly shut down to avoid a nuclear incident. That may be precisely what Russia is aiming for.

Today, 55% of Ukraine’s electricity is generated by three nuclear plants. Russian attacks this spring and summer destroyed 9 GW of generation capacity—half of the peak winter demand. Additionally, 80% of thermal generation and a third of hydropower capacity have been lost.

In 2023, Russia sought to isolate nuclear plants by disrupting energy transmission networks, but Ukraine’s energy system endured thanks to quick repairs and rerouted power flows.

However, if the nuclear plants are paralyzed, the energy war will be over for Ukraine. This would cripple its military capability, devastate its economy, and weaken its position in any future peace negotiations, Politico reports.

Fear of this scenario is reportedly one factor prompting the Biden administration to reconsider its restrictions on ATACMS and Storm Shadow. Washington grew more concerned after recent strikes on key substations supplying power to nuclear plants.

If Ukraine is not allowed to strike deep into Russia, the chances of surviving the winter are not great, said expert Mykhailo Honchar. Former Ukrenergo CEO Volodymyr Kudrytskyi agreed, adding that three factors will be critical this winter: weather, Russian strikes, and Ukraine’s ability to target Russian airfields.

In Ukraine, there’s hope that the looming energy system collapse will outweigh Washington’s fears of escalation.

Earlier, Vladimir Putin stated that a "green light" for the use of Western long-range missiles would significantly change the nature of the war and signify direct NATO involvement. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin warned that the "dangerous game of the West" could lead to a direct confrontation between nuclear powers.

Ukrainian officials dismiss the nuclear threats as empty, noting that they have not led to any significant escalation following Western weapon strikes on targets in Russia's border regions, occupied Crimea, and Donbas. Meanwhile, Western officials argue that they have no choice but to take these threats seriously.

CIA Director William Burns explained, “Putin’s a bully. He’s going to continue to sabre rattle from time to time. We cannot afford to be intimidated by that sabre rattling.” However, he emphasized that his agency is genuinely concerned that Russia might resort to using tactical nuclear weapons.

Although President Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have brushed off Putin's threats, the White House remains at a crossroads between the fear of Moscow’s response to strikes on Russian airfields, the potential disruption of peace talks, and anxiety about how the military situation in Ukraine will unfold.

Sources: Associated Press, Bloomberg, and Politico.