US election: Top 5 facts about 2024 campaign
Photo: The US election campaign has been compared to a roller coaster in terms of intensity (Getty Images)
The US election is just weeks away. The election campaign is in the home stretch, and assassination attempts, criminal prosecution of a candidate, and the incumbent president's withdrawal from the race are just some of the reasons why the media have nicknamed it a roller coaster.
RBC-Ukraine provides five facts about the US election campaign 2024.
Contents
- Kamala Harris to replace Joe Biden: Historical precedent
- Donald Trump: 2 assassination attempts and criminal record
- Top priorities: Who candidates running for office with
- Keys to White House are in 7 states: Forecasts
- Who else to be elected on November 5
Kamala Harris to replace Joe Biden: Historical precedent
In April 2023, Joe Biden announced his candidacy. However, due to low ratings, his position did not seem strong. This was also because he was already the oldest president, having taken office at the age of 78. At the time of his next possible inauguration, he would have been 82 years old, and by the end of his second term, 86 years old. Up to 70% of Americans believed that he should not run because of his age.
Nevertheless, he gained support in the Democratic Party primaries and caucuses, and in March became the presumptive nominee. But after a poor performance at a debate in June and amid mounting pressure, he withdrew from the race less than four months before the election.
Biden explained that although he had intended to seek re-election, he believed it was in the best interest of his party and the country to step back and focus on serving as president for the remainder of his term.
He became the first sitting president since Lyndon Johnson in 1968 to withdraw from the race for re-election. He was the first since the nineteenth century to refuse to run for office after one term, and the only one to withdraw after winning the primary.
He withdrew in favor of his vice president, Kamala Harris. Democrats quickly rallied around her and nominated her as their presidential candidate in August. As a result, Harris became the first black woman and the first politician of Asian descent to lead the United States.
Her campaign has breathed new life into attempts to maintain control of the White House. And her confident performance in the debate against Donald Trump on September 10 further boosted Democratic confidence. A month before the election, she has a significant advantage in the key indicator of voter support - individual financial donations. Harris has raised more than $600 million, which is more than the Democratic contributions to the last two presidential campaigns.
Donald Trump: 2 assassination attempts and criminal record
Former president and current Republican candidate Donald Trump survived two assassination attempts two months apart.
First, at a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks shot at him from a distance of about 120 meters. He managed to fire several shots from an AR-15 rifle before being neutralized. As a result, a 50-year-old firefighter was killed, three other protesters were wounded, and Trump himself was shot in the ear.
The second attempt was prevented. On September 15, Secret Service agents opened fire on 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routt, who was hiding with a rifle in the bushes at a golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida. The incident occurred when Trump was playing with friend and sponsor Steve Witkoff.
In addition, he went through several civil and criminal trials.
Trump became the first ex-president to be convicted of felonies when he was found guilty on 34 counts in May (the case of payments to former porn actress Stormy Daniels). This happened after losing civil cases in which Trump defamed writer Jean Carroll and committed financial fraud in his business.
He also appealed the case of interference in the 2020 elections and participation in the January 6, 2021, coup. In July, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump is not subject to criminal prosecution for his official actions as president.
However, if he were to receive a prison sentence, he could still campaign. US law does not provide for restrictions on participation in elections, even for prisoners. Other cases have been postponed until after November 5. And if Trump becomes president, he will most likely put an end to all the proceedings.
His supporters call the criminal prosecution the biggest witch hunt in history. In any case, Trump's mix of populist policies and more traditional Republican principles (low taxes, lax regulation, and tough foreign policy) has become an undeniable strength that will have to be taken into account on Election Day.
Top priorities: Who candidates running for office with
Historically, in the United States, presidential candidates tend to move toward the political center after being nominated. Usually, even the most progressive or conservative views soften during the campaign.
However, both Harris and Trump are warming up their electorate with bold promises. Both candidates are no strangers to populist policies that appeal to their supporters. But that's where the similarities end, and they will take the country in different directions.
Harris' priorities
Domestic policy will focus on tax relief for the middle class and small businesses; more affordable housing, food, and medicine. On the southern border, she promises to revive a bipartisan agreement that would add more border agents, fentanyl detection equipment, and increased prosecution of illegal aliens.
Foreign policy is likely to emphasize multilateralism, human rights, and strengthening global alliances. At the same time, he will be addressing issues related to China and Russia's war against Ukraine.
Trump's priorities
He emphasizes nationalism, border security, and economic protectionism. With tighter migration restrictions, the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico, and stricter asylum laws.
Trump will seek to reduce business regulation and cut taxes. In foreign policy, an isolationist approach is likely to prevail, with a reduction in international commitments and a strengthening of military power to counter threats from a position of strength.
Keys to White House are in 7 states: Forecasts
About 240 million US citizens are eligible to vote. But only a relatively small number are likely to decide who will become president. It is assumed that seven swing states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - hold the keys to the White House.
Arizona supported Biden in the last election. The state borders Mexico and has become a center of debate on migration. Trump criticizes Biden-Harris' actions in this area and promises the largest deportation in US history.
Georgia, specifically Fulton County, is the place where alleged interference in the 2020 elections led to Trump's criminal charges. One-third of the population is African American. According to polls, this demographic is disillusioned with the Biden administration, but the Harris campaign hopes to revitalize the district.
Michigan supported Biden in 2020, but the population has a negative attitude toward supporting Israel's war in the Gaza Strip. It is home to the largest share of Arab-Americans. Harris has a tougher stance on Israel, while Trump calls for an end to the campaign against Hamas.
Nevada, after many years of Democratic support, may lean toward the Republican. Earlier polls showed Trump's advantage, but it has shrunk with Harris' nomination.
North Carolina borders Georgia and shares some electoral issues. Trump won in 2020 but with a margin of only 70 thousand votes.
Pennsylvania is considered a key swing state, as it provides 19 electoral votes at once. The main problem here is the economy. Food prices have risen faster than in other states, and in Erie County, one in eight residents is considered food insecure.
Wisconsin chose the winners in 2016 and 2020 with a difference of just over 20 thousand votes. It is considered a state in which third-party candidates can harm Trump or Harris.
In most national polls, Harris is ahead of Trump. The ABC News 538 project shows 48.5% to 45.7%; 270towin - 49.3% to 45.7%; realclearpolling - 49.1% to 47.1%.
As for the swing states, according to Bloomberg News/Morning Consult, Harris leads with 50% to 47% (Arizona), 50% to 47% (Michigan), 52% to 45% (Nevada), 50% to 48% (North Carolina), 51% to 46% (Pennsylvania), 51% to 48% (Wisconsin). The figures in Georgia are 50% to 50%.
Who else to be elected on November 5
Most attention is focused on who will win the presidential election. But voters will also elect new members of the US Congress, where laws are passed.
Congress consists of the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for election. And the Senate, where 34 seats are up for grabs.
Currently, the House of Representatives, which initiates spending plans, is controlled by Republicans. Democrats have a majority in the Senate, which votes on key government appointments.
Both chambers pass laws and can act as a check on White House initiatives if the dominant party in the House or Senate disagrees with the president. The election are expected to be very competitive. According to forecasts, neither the Republicans nor the Democrats will have an advantage with a difference of more than 5 seats.
The current Congress of the 118th convocation is considered one of the least productive since 1931-1933. And one of the most dramatic, with events such as the January 2023 speaker election, the debt ceiling crisis, Kevin McCarthy's ouster as Speaker of the House, the October 2023 speaker election (Mike Johnson), and the first expulsion of a House member in 20 years (George Santos).
