Trump without Nobel Prize: Reason he lost it and his chances for next year revealed

Key questions:

• How did Trump pursue the Nobel Prize?
• Why was he denied the award this year?
• What would it take for Trump to win the prize in the future?

Trump’s setback

Last week, US President Donald Trump was preparing for yet another triumph. Among his numerous achievements, one remained elusive - the Nobel Peace Prize. Yet his quest for it appeared to have become something of an obsession. This was especially striking considering that Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, had received the Nobel Prize almost as an advance recognition of his potential.

Given Trump’s personality, several countries nominated him this year for the Nobel Peace Prize for his peacemaking efforts.Trump himself actively encouraged this narrative, boasting about seven ended wars. At the end of July, he even called Norway’s Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg - Norway being the home of the Nobel Committee - to discuss trade tariffs as well as his ambitions to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. According to Norwegian media, Trump reportedly expressed that he believed he deserved the award for his contributions to global peace and was eager to receive it.

It was therefore unsurprising that, on the eve of the announcement, betting odds on the US president’s victory were higher than ever. Moreover, it appeared that, around the day the laureate was revealed, the US helped facilitate significant progress between Israel and Hamas toward resolving the conflict in the Gaza Strip - an achievement that could have strengthened Trump’s case.

Yet the Nobel Committee seemingly ignored all these hints and awarded the prize to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.

Arguments against Trump

The committee responsible for awarding the prize is an independent body, obliged to uphold the will of Alfred Nobel, the Swedish inventor and philanthropist. Above all, this entails honoring those who promote peace, disarmament, and international cooperation. By these standards, Trump’s record is contentious, wrote Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, in Time. Her institute, among other duties, advises the Nobel Committee on the Peace Prize.

On the front of international cooperation, Trump adopted an isolationist stance. Earlier this year, he signed executive orders withdrawing the US from the World Health Organization, the Paris Climate Agreement, and international tax accords. These moves signal a retreat from multilateral engagement and run counter to Nobel’s vision.

The Trump administration also sharply curtailed US foreign aid, downsizing the US Agency for International Development (USAID). Programs worth billions, from famine relief in Sudan to vaccination campaigns in sub-Saharan Africa, were jeopardized.

Regarding disarmament, Trump has rejected traditional practices. During his first term, the US exited the Cold War–era arms control treaty with Russia. More recently, he announced ambitious rearmament plans and even proposed renaming the Department of Defense the Department of War. Alfred Nobel, by contrast, emphasized the gradual reduction of arms and the building of mutual trust between nations.

In terms of peace, Trump did take notable steps to support initiatives aimed at ending conflicts worldwide. However, the Nobel Committee questions the manner in which this was pursued. In his drive to end wars, Trump often overlooked their root causes, siding instead with the stronger or more familiar party. Ukraine experienced this firsthand during the infamous White House fallout and Trump’s subsequent attempts to negotiate with Russia without exerting pressure on the Kremlin.

Trump’s domestic actions are also controversial. On one hand, his strict deportation policies targeting undocumented migrants frequently skirted legal boundaries. On the other hand, deploying troops to US cities under the pretext of combating crime drew criticism from state authorities. Additionally, his attempts to leverage administrative power against political opponents, including their public targeting on his social media platform Truth Social, added to the controversy.

Not all is lost

Despite this year’s setback, Trump could still find success in the future. Unsurprisingly, his team criticized the Nobel Committee’s decision. White House Communications Director Steven Cheung stated that the Committee put politics above peace.

“President Trump will continue making peace deals, ending wars, and saving lives. He has the heart of a humanitarian, and there will never be anyone like him who can move mountains with the sheer force of his will,” Cheung wrote on the social media platform X.

Trump has already spoken with the laureate. According to him, the conversation with María Corina Machado was very pleasant, and he even joked afterward:

"I didn't say, 'Then give it to me,' though I think she might have. She was very nice,” Trump remarked.

Machado, in turn, dedicated the prize both to the people of Venezuela and to Trump - likely attempting to appeal to the US president, as she seeks his support.

Machado has previously had contacts with the White House. In addition, the US currently has a naval presence off Venezuela’s coast to combat drug cartels. According to The New York Times, Trump’s team has drafted several potential courses of action - including military intervention and the removal of dictator Nicolás Maduro, against whom Machado campaigns.

Success in this effort could provide a strong argument for nominating Trump for the prize next year.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that he is ready to nominate Trump again if he can secure a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war.

“And if Trump gives the world, first and foremost Ukrainians, the opportunity for such a ceasefire, then yes, he should be nominated for the Nobel Prize. We will nominate him on behalf of Ukraine,” Zelenskyy told journalists.

However, for the Nobel Committee to view Trump more favorably, the US president must not only become a genuine peacemaker on the international stage but also adjust his domestic policies.

This article draws on statements from Donald Trump, Maria Corina Machado, Steven Cheung, and articles from The New York Times, Time, Bloomberg, and Reuters.