Trump vs. Harris: Who leads the US pre-election polls
Photo: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump (Getty Images)
The US election will take place in less than a week. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are the main candidates for the presidency with minimal gaps in the ratings.
Contents
- Ratings as of October 29
- Ratings as of October 23
- Ratings as of October 16
- Ratings as of October 10
- How Harris and Trump's ratings changed
- US election: Key dates
At the national level, the ratings of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are almost equal. In four of the seven key states, Trump is ahead of Harris by a few percentage points, and in Nevada, both candidates are equal.
Ratings as of October 29
Ratings in the United States (CBS/YouGov poll, October 25-27):
Harris - 49%; Trump - 48%.
Average ratings in key states (according to FiveThirtyEight):
Arizona
Trump - 48.7%; Harris - 46.8%
Wisconsin
Harris - 47.8%; Trump - 47.8%
Georgia
Trump - 48.6%; Harris - 47.1%
Michigan
Harris - 47.7%; Trump - 47.2%
Nevada
Harris - 47.5%; Trump - 47.3%
Pennsylvania
Trump - 47.9%; Harris - 47.6%
North Carolina
Trump - 48.4%; Harris - 47.1%.
Ratings as of October 23
Ratings in the United States (Reuters/Ipsos poll, October 21-22):
Harris - 46%; Trump - 43%.
Average ratings in key states (according to FiveThirtyEight):
Arizona
Trump - 48.6%; Harris - 46.7%
Wisconsin
Harris - 47.8%; Trump - 47.4%
Georgia
Trump - 48.5%; Harris - 46.9%
Michigan
Harris - 47.4%; Trump - 47.2%
Nevada
Harris - 47.3%; Trump - 47.2%
Pennsylvania
Trump - 47.8%; Harris - 47.5%
North Carolina
Trump - 48.1%; Harris - 47.2%.
Ratings as of October 16
Ratings in the United States (Reuters/Ipsos poll, October 12-13):
Harris - 45%; Trump - 42%.
Average ratings in key states (according to FiveThirtyEight):
Arizona
Trump - 48.2%; Harris - 46.8%
Wisconsin
Harris - 48%; Trump - 47.4%
Georgia
Trump - 48.3%; Harris - 47.2%
Michigan.
Harris - 47.7%; Trump - 46.9%
Nevada
Harris - 47.7%; Trump - 46.9%
Pennsylvania
Harris - 48.1%; Trump - 47.3%
North Carolina
Trump - 48.1%; Harris - 47.3%.
Ratings as of October 10
Ratings in the United States (YouGov/The Economist poll, October 6-7):
Harris - 49%; Trump - 45%.
Average ratings in key states (according to FiveThirtyEight):
Arizona
Trump - 48.1%; Harris - 46.8%
Wisconsin
Harris - 48%; Trump - 47.2%
Georgia
Trump - 48.2%; Harris - 47.2%
Michigan
Harris - 47.8%; Trump - 46.8%
Nevada
Harris - 47.8%; Trump - 47%
Pennsylvania
Harris - 48.1%; Trump - 47.3%
North Carolina
Trump - 48.2%; Harris - 47.2%.
How Harris and Trump's ratings changed
The key event that influenced the course of the US presidential race was the replacement of the Democratic candidate in July. Instead of incumbent President Joe Biden, who was far behind his rival Donald Trump, the Democrats nominated Vice President Kamala Harris.
From the first days in the race, Harris began to gain popularity and within weeks overtook Trump in terms of national popularity, albeit not by a large margin. However, in September, when the novelty effect began to wear off and Trump adapted to his new rival, the Republican managed to minimize the gap.
In the United States, unlike in most countries, the rating of candidates throughout the country is not a determining factor. The president of the United States is not the one who was voted for by the absolute majority of Americans, but the one who managed to win, albeit minimally, in some so-called swing states. Many times, the candidate who received fewer votes in the country as a whole has eventually become president of the United States.
This year, there are seven swing states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. In each of them, the gap between Trump and Harris is minimal and usually does not go beyond the statistical error in the vast majority of polls. Besides, recent American elections have shown that American sociologists are often unable to accurately measure voter sentiment and polls give false results.
Given this, as well as the minimal gap in the ratings, which is likely to remain until Election Day, the winner will remain unknown until the very last moment. And the fate of this year's US election will likely be decided by the advantage of one of the candidates by a few thousand votes in a single state.
US election: Key dates
The US election will take place on November 5, 2024. However, a very large percentage of Americans vote in advance or send ballots by mail, and this process has been going on for several weeks.
As a rule, the winner of the US presidential election is unofficially determined on the night after the election, long before all the votes are officially counted. According to the Ukrainian timezone, this is the morning of November 6.
Yet, given the minimal gap between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, it is likely that the winner will be determined much longer - several days or even weeks. Especially given that candidates and electors have the right to challenge the results of voting in individual states or parts of them and demand a recount, which is a common procedure in the United States.
The final election results are to be established by December 17, when the electors will meet in each state. Still, various lawsuits and appeals may delay this process.
On January 6, 2025, members of the US Congress will meet to count the electoral votes, which will be the final formal step in confirming the winner of the election.
On January 20, 2025, the newly elected President and Vice President of the United States will take the Oath of Office and assume their powers.
The article was based on the data of FiveThirtyEight, an aggregator of opinion polls.
Check out also US election: Top 5 facts about 2024 campaign.
Both presidential candidates have already adapted their strategies against each other. However, there are constantly emerging events that may affect the final outcome of the election.
