Red wave coming: How Trump scored landslide victory in US election

"Trump's landslide victory" – this phrasing may seem rather exaggerated. Although the final results of the voting in the US are not yet determined, it’s already clear that there have been far more overwhelming victories in American history, and Harris, for someone who lost, showed a relatively decent result.

Yet, if we compare the actual numbers with those predicted before Election Day, Trump’s victory does indeed look convincing. All serious polling agencies, without exception, were adamant in convincing the audience that it would be "an unprecedentedly close race." Everyone, including the American media, from conservatives to left-liberals, was preparing for a lengthy, multi-day vote count, where the outcome would be decided by just thousands, or at most tens of thousands, of votes. In reality, just hours after the polls closed, it was already clear.

The nature of Trump’s victory includes two factors, known a year or more before the election: the economy and immigration. And it didn’t matter that in the second part of Joe Biden’s presidency, the economic situation improved noticeably, and the issue of illegal border crossings became less acute.

But people’s feelings, not numbers and statistics, decide the elections. Trump worked masterfully on those feelings throughout the campaign, persistently and without hesitation, describing the situation in the country as an absolute, total disaster. And he converted this into voter turnout and votes from his supporters. According to Edison Research exit polls, among voters for whom the economy was the main issue in the election, 79% voted for Trump.

Although Trump has many years of political experience, including at the highest government level, he successfully sold himself as the "change" candidate. This image works well when most of the population is dissatisfied with the general situation in the country – and convincing people of this was the second part of the task. Trump achieved this successfully – according to exit polls, three out of four Americans believe the US is moving in the wrong direction. Of them, 61% voted for Trump.

Donald Trump with his family, allies, and supporters (photo: Getty Images)

But the 2024 election was not only won by Donald Trump. It was also lost by Kamala Harris, and that’s the other side of the coin.

The task facing Harris from the outset was extraordinarily difficult. To unexpectedly enter the presidential campaign with no preparation and a lack of a strong political background, just three and a half months before Election Day, when the Democratic Party was clearly on a downward trend – winning under these conditions would have been nearly a miracle. Harris failed to deliver this miracle, although she certainly tried.

None of the bets made by her campaign during this election worked. First and foremost – no abortion bans. Democrats hoped that it would mobilize women voters, particularly apolitical ones, outraged by the state interfering in their private lives. Indeed, according to exit polls, a relative majority – 54% of American women voted for Harris. But in the previous presidential election in 2020, when the issue of abortion was not as sharply debated, Joe Biden had more support from American women than Harris did now.

The emphasis on racial identity also failed to have the desired effect. Among African American voters, Harris did even worse than Biden did four years ago, as well as among Latino voters, whom Trump managed to partially win over to his side. As it turned out, issues like the economy, illegal immigration, and topics like LGBT rights were more important to these groups of voters than their skin color or background.

Appeals to Trump’s status as a convicted criminal also failed to resonate – it turned out that this didn’t bother the average voter. Likewise, accusations of Trump being a fascist – especially since he countered her with "you're the fascist."

In the end, Harris failed to clearly position herself for the voters and explain how she could simultaneously claim the positive legacy of Biden’s presidency while presenting herself as an independent politician with rather different views from Biden. Even Biden himself didn’t help Harris' campaign much, and at times, he seemed to hinder it.

The media and analysts often apply terms like "exceptional," "unprecedented," and "shocking" to various electoral campaigns and their results. But in this case, it wouldn’t be an exaggeration. A campaign in which one of the candidates – Biden – didn’t even make it to Election Day, and the other – Trump – had every chance of not surviving had a sniper’s bullet been just a few inches off, truly seems extraordinary.

This is likely what a Trump presidency will look like. Especially if Republicans, in addition to the White House and the Senate, also gain control of the House of Representatives, and they have a very good chance of making it. There are already reasons to talk about a real "red wave" – a term used to describe a highly successful outcome for the Republican Party in the US elections (and conversely, a successful outcome for the Democrats is called a "blue wave").

In this case, all the central power in the country – legislative, executive, and even judicial (since the US Supreme Court is already under Republican control) – will fall into the hands of one party, or more precisely, one person – Trump. And there won’t be any meaningful checks and balances, which is especially dangerous in Trump’s case. The red wave is sweeping across the US, but Ukraine, the Middle East, and the rest of the world will soon feel its consequences.