Radicals' march. Why Europe elects populists and how it threatens Ukraine

Contents

• Far-right and far-left in Europe
• Why popularity of populists is growing
• Russia factor
• Why populists can be anti-Russian
• Course's evolution
• Support from overseas
• Implications for Ukraine

A spectre is haunting Europe — the spectre of populism. Far-right and far-left parties in many European countries are either winning double-digit percentages of support in elections or even coming to power. This reality must be taken into account. However, it is not as scary as it seems at first glance.

Far-right and far-left in Europe

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany has long been the most popular opposition force. With 18-20% of the rating, the party ranks second in public opinion polls, and last year it won for the first time at the local level in Thuringia and subsequently showed good results in other elections. The party has been under the supervision of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution for several years on suspicion of extremism.

In 2021, the service classified the AfD in Thuringia as a right-wing extremist organization. The party's leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, was found guilty of using the banned slogan of Adolf Hitler's SA stormtroopers. Also, according to the decision of the German court, Höcke can be fairly called a fascist.

On the other hand, the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), with about 6%, speculates on left-wing themes of social justice and falling living standards. This political force emerged recently as a result of the split of former German communists from the Left Party.

It is only by a miracle that the traditional parties manage to keep the AfD in political isolation. Germany's mainstream parties have promised to avoid coalitions with right-wing radicals. This is not the case with the BSW. Last November, this party became a member of the ruling coalition in Thuringia for the first time.

The situation is similar in France. In last year's parliamentary elections, the far-right National Rally won 20% of the seats and came in second. The former leader of the party (but still one of its faces) Marine Le Pen is currently under investigation on charges of embezzling European Union funds and concealed financing of the party. In 2014, she declared her support for the L/DNR terrorists, said she shared the same values as Putin, and wanted Ukraine to be federalized.

At the same time, the far-left France Unbowed won 12% of the seats. The party ran in a bloc with other left-wing parties, so it now de facto controls one-third of the parliament, although signs of a split are already very visible in the left-wing camp.

Only the political acrobatics of President Macron, who can appoint the prime minister alone, and France's two-round majority electoral system save the country from complete political chaos. Although once, left- and right-wing radicals have already managed to overthrow the prime minister appointed by Macron.

In Italy, after the 2022 elections, a coalition was formed by the populist Brothers of Italy, the League, and Forza Italia. The leader of the first party and current Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Maloni, once openly expressed sympathy for dictator Benito Mussolini. The leader of the second party, Matteo Salvini, is known for having driven migrant boats away from Italian shores as Interior Minister in the previous government. The now-deceased leader of the third party, Silvio Berlusconi, was personal friends with Putin for many years.

On September 29, the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) won the national parliamentary elections in Austria for the first time in history, receiving about 29% of the vote. Moreover, for the first time, the country's president instructed it to form a coalition.

In Slovakia, since 2022, the left-wing populist SMER-SD party and the right-wing radical Slovak National Party have been in power. The former leader of the latter party, Ján Slota, called for pouring concrete on the Hungarians and announced a Slovak tank campaign against Budapest.

Alternatives for Germany rally in Thuringia, August 2024. The German flag was additionally painted with the iron cross, which was common during the Nazi era (photo: Getty Images).

In Romania, in the parliamentary elections at the end of last year, the right-wing radical parties Alliance for the Union of Romanians, S.O.S. Romania, and Party of Young People won a third of the seats. In the presidential election, an independent far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, won in the first round. However, the presidential election results were later canceled due to reasonable suspicions of Russian interference.

Sweden has a specific situation. The right-wing populist party Sweden Democrats did not formally join the coalition in 2022. However, its representatives have been given non-ministerial positions in the government, allowing them to fully control its work, receive all information, and veto any decisions they do not like.

In Hungary, the right-wing radical party Jobbik has long held strong positions. However, in recent years, it has become more moderate. Instead, the country's longtime prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has moved sharply to the right in his rhetoric.

The list could go on and on. What all these parties have in common is that they are trying to shake the power of moderate political parties that have ruled or are ruling Europe for decades. It is a secondary question whether they use far-right or far-left rhetoric.

"Not everywhere of course, but in many contexts, what we see today is a far-right and a radical left that share one common target, one common enemy, and that common target and common enemy is basically the liberal mainstream, as they call it", Associate Professor of European Studies, University of Tartu (Estonia) Stefano Braghiroli says.

Moreover, the so-called horseshoe effect has long been known in political science. It implies that the far left and far right are not really antagonists, as they try to position themselves.

"Very rarely they officially work together. But increasingly they say the same thing, also act differently, they have the same target, and most importantly, which is for parties, they have the same electorate. So the voters that today vote for AfD in Germany, tomorrow could vote for Wagenknecht", Braghiroli says.

Why popularity of populists is growing

The continued rise in popularity of right- and left-wing radicals in Europe has several reasons. "The end of the Cold War ended the taken-for-granted legitimacy of traditional parties in eastern en western parties based on Cold War differences," Professor of International Relations at Radboud University Nijmegen (Netherlands) Bertjan Verbeek. There thus was political/electoral space for new movements and parties that would put the interest of the people (cf. demos) first and that would mobilize on the basis of presenting the failure of traditional parties to serve the interests of the people.

They were further boosted by increased globalization and European integration. Populists have been telling citizens that they have lost in these processes and that traditional politicians are doing little to protect the interests of the people.

"On top of that migration (itself partly related to globalization) and the perceived threat to the people became the focal point for many populist movements and parties", Verbeek said.

Conference of right-wing populist parties in Florence, Italy. December 2023 (photo: Getty Images)

In general, the uncertainty of one's future and the constant threat of losing the ground under one's feet create a favorable emotional background for populists.

“People are afraid of change, people are afraid of uncertainty, people are afraid that they will lose part of their well-being and identity for various reasons. And in fact, this is the basis for the narratives of the parties that are called populist,” Viktor Savinok, an analyst at the Western Institute in Poznan (Poland), tells RBC-Ukraine.

According to him, populist parties are currently using two messages.

The first one is that they are new faces who oppose the old political elites.

The second is criticism of the democratic system as fundamentally incapable of effective action, because every serious decision requires numerous and lengthy approvals.

At the same time, populists play on emotions and simple solutions that are most easily accepted by certain categories of voters who do not always understand cause and effect.

“Populists, in particular far-right parties, offer incredibly quick solutions, which is what the average European wants to hear. It's a bait that works in the short term,” Viktoriia Vdovychenko, co-director of the Future of Ukraine program at the Center for Geopolitics at the University of Cambridge (UK), tells the agency.

In addition, populists in most cases have successfully mastered social networks, which allow them to communicate with their audience bypassing the mainstream media.

Russia factor

Right-wing and left-wing radicals have long been nicknamed Putin's friends. At least for some parties, there were indeed many reasons for this. There are numerous documented cases of their cooperation with Russian embassies, loans from Russian banks, populist MPs traveling to Russia, and, finally, individuals working directly for Russian special services.

Russia's global goal is to undermine the European political system and create chaos. At the same time, the Kremlin uses European radicals for tactical purposes.

Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia regularly brought representatives of populist parties to the occupied Crimea and Donbas. Although these were mostly local MPs from small towns, such visits were meant to show that the occupied territories were not in international isolation and that European politicians allegedly recognized the so-called separation of Crimea and Donbas from Ukraine. Russia also used its friends as so-called observers during various sham elections in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

After all, they were also used to promote Russian interests in Europe. For example, the Alternative for Germany does not hide its ties to Russia even now. Party members have visited the occupied Crimea several times at the Russian invitation. A Spiegel investigation showed that in July 2023, the AfD parliamentary faction, on Russia's instructions, filed a lawsuit with the Federal Constitutional Court demanding that Ukraine stop supplying weapons.

Matteo Salvini, leader of the Italian League party, in Moscow, 2017 (photo: Getty Images)

In turn, for populists, Russia is one of the few global powers willing to support them.

On the other hand, there is a psychological factor. Using the example of the National Rally in France, Oksana Mitrofanova, a lecturer and researcher at the Jean Moulin University of Lyon 3 (France), explained this to the publication.

“For the National Rally deputies, the image of Europe based on Christian European values was attractive. And the president of Russia had the image of its strong leader,” Mitrofanova said.

But the problem is that the party representatives do not understand what an authoritarian regime is. After all, a dictatorship, among other things, implies the absence of freedom of speech and human rights violations.

After all, after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many populists publicly renounced Russia. In March 2022, the leader of the Italian League, Matteo Salvini, publicly condemned Russian aggression and Putin personally.

The position of the Hungarian right-wing populist Jobbik is illustrative in this regard. In December 2022, the party's leader, Márton Gyöngyösi, said that it was a mistake to choose Russia as an ally in the fight for the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine and apologized.

The politician said in an interview with European Pravda that he had been defending them when I opposed Ukraine at the time, and he admitted to doing so in cooperation with Russia. He stated that he would not do that now and would not go to Donbas because he now understood the consequences and hidden intentions of Russia when it had supported them. He also mentioned that it had been too much and expressed regret, apologizing for his actions.

At the same time, many populist parties were anti-Russian even before 2022.

Why populists can be anti-Russian

For populists in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, the historical heritage and proximity to Russia play an important role.

"Poland which has had a tragical experience with Russia throughout history. Polish populists are weary of Russia; similar in the Nordic counties: they have been weary of Russia's geopolitical interests for years", Verbeek says.

"The Sweden Democrats strongly support Ukraine. We have been advocating both military and civilian aid for Ukraine since before the full scale invasion of 2022 and have also committed to continue the support and look in to possibilities in increasing support in the future. Regarding sanctions against Russia we are advocating stronger sanctions in general and we have been looking into new possibilities of further sanctions,” the Sweden Democrats say RBC-Ukraine.

As for domestic policy, the position of the Sweden Democrats has not changed much.

“Our main analysis on the negative effects on all of society of the migration policies of these past decades, has been proven correct, and our principles regarding a welfare state and the need to both help those in need and encourage industry and growth, are the same. Of course, policy development never ends, and we always adapt to new circumstances,” the Sweden Democrats say.

The situation is similar in the Baltic States, Denmark, Norway, and Finland. By the way, the latter had Jussi Halla-aho, the Speaker of the Parliament from the Finnish Party (formerly True Finns), known for ordering an inscription on a Ukrainian shell for a donation, and for speaking in Ukrainian from the rostrum of the Verkhovna Rada.

The situation in Italy is somewhat different. The Italian government, headed by Giorgia Meloni, regularly assists Ukraine. To some extent, she can even be called one of Kyiv's advocates in the European Union.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Giorgia Meloni (photo: Getty Images)

“Meloni's position is pro-Ukrainian because it is beneficial for Italy. The Brothers of Italy as a political party is not pro-Ukrainian, although part of the party supports the position of the Prime Minister,” Viktoriia Vdovychenko tells RBC-Ukraine.

According to the expert, Italian companies are interested in entering Ukraine with large energy and infrastructure projects, as well as maritime security projects. At the same time, personal contacts play an important role.

“This is a merit of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He charmed her in the truest sense of the word. The Italian Prime Minister likes to talk to Zelenskyy and I can say for sure that she changed her view of Ukraine after Zelenskyy came to power, but not all party members followed their leader,” Vdovychenko adds.

The Brothers of Italy's coalition partners, the League, and Forza Italia parties, directly criticize Meloni in the context of Ukraine, but this criticism is restrained, unlike another populist party, the 5-Star Movement, which is currently in opposition.

In the Netherlands, right-wing populists from the Party for Freedom have to take into account the anti-Russian consensus in society. It emerged after Russia shot down MH17 in 2014. In the 2016 referendum, Wilders' party campaigned against the signing of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. However, last year the party joined the coalition and promised to continue supporting Ukraine. The example of the Netherlands shows how populists can change their position over time.

Course's evolution

There is no single model of how populists change when trying to come to power. However several trends can be identified.

On the one hand, populists inevitably reduce the radicalism of their views to gain the support of more voters. For example, this happened in Italy, France, and the Netherlands.

“The classic approach is that if the far-right simply wants to come to power, they disguise certain messages in a chameleon-like manner that are beneficial to gain more seats. And then they modify themselves in this regard so that the hype approach is maintained,” Vdovychenko explains.

According to Verbeek, the decrease in radicalism has occurred in countries where several populist parties are competing for the same votes. This forces them to also oppose themselves to other populist parties, thus pushing some to a more centrist position and others to a more radical one.

“This the case in Italy e.g. where Meloni's party has become a bit less radical, and the "Lega" has become more radical. In 2023 this was the case in the Netherlands with PVV suggesting to be more moderate on Europe and islam (at least in words) and "Forum for Democracy" being more radical," Verbeek says.

In France, reducing the radicalism of the National Rally is a very long process, and it has not happened over the past year, Oksana Mitrofanova tells RBC-Ukraine. The party has already abandoned the idea of France's withdrawal from the European Union and then rejected the idea of leaving the eurozone.

What is important, there has been a transformation in terms of NATO. While under Marine Le Pen, the party was in favor of France's withdrawal from the alliance's integrated military structures, in the face of a full-scale war in Europe, the new party leader, Jordan Bardella, said that withdrawal was not the right time.

“We see that the National Rally wants to transform its image and become a classic right-wing party,” Mitrofanova tells the agency, ”If it succeeds, the party will have a chance to come to power. But as long as this image of extremes remains, it scares the French conservative public. But it is difficult to predict this evolution.”

According to her, the party does not have a clear foreign policy program, as it focuses mainly on domestic policy. This may change closer to the presidential election. In France, the President is responsible for the country's foreign policy.

“Of course, they pay attention to the reaction of the population. For example, the French were not very positive about the idea of sending French troops to Ukraine. But on the other hand, the population welcomed Ukrainian refugees very favorably, and the National Rally had to take this into account,” the expert adds.

In this context, the main challenge for populists is how to find a balance between attracting new voters and preserving the old, radical electorate. And much depends on the place in the ruling coalition occupied by populist parties. The main parties are more likely to shift toward moderation, while their junior partners are more likely to become more radical.

"In the case of Meloni, you are the main party, and you are the one that basically leads the government. If you lead the government, you can take a certain degree of freedom because then you are the face of the government. If you become a junior partner, then the risk is that you have to compromise with the mainstream. And if you look to compromise too much, you can lose your voters. Because your voters are mobilized by your radicalism", Braghiroli says.

This is also true for parties that are in opposition, but not alone, but in a bloc with others. For example, the position of the French far left on Ukraine. In general, they have a negative attitude toward the United States.

“In Mélenchon's perception (leader of the France Unbowed - ed.), NATO was the aggressor. Allegedly, the process of NATO expansion posed a threat to Russia. Therefore, at the beginning of the war, there were statements by Mélenchon about the expediency of Ukraine's neutrality,” Mitrofanova said.

Mélenchon initially opposed most initiatives to support Ukraine. France Unbowed voted against the security agreement between Ukraine and France, while the National Rally abstained from voting. However, in last year's parliamentary elections, the France Unbowed joined a bloc with other leftist parties to form the New Popular Front (NPF). Since the socialists and environmentalists strongly and unequivocally support Ukraine, Mélenchon softened his rhetoric on Ukraine, in particular, emphasizing the consensus in the NFP on military assistance to Ukraine.

There are other trends as well. The Alternative for Germany has only become more radical over the years. It was created as a party of economics professors who said that Europe's problems should not be solved at the expense of Germany. In 2015, there was a migration crisis, and this party took up anti-immigration rhetoric. This is still one of the party's main themes.

Alice Weidel, leader of Alternative for Germany (photo: Getty Images)

“They now believe that they need to become a niche party, and they are doing it now - for East Germany. Through this, the AfD wants to make itself coalition-ready. And they are gradually moving towards this by winning elections in the eastern states,” says Savinok.

According to Braghiroli, the evolution of populists towards greater radicalism or moderation depends on the situation in a particular country, taking into account which strategy works best for them.

Stefano Braghiroli summarized that if one compromises too much, they lose voters, but if they don't compromise at all, no one will want to join them in a coalition.

Support from overseas

European populists may receive a new impetus after Donald Trump wins the US presidential election. His statements during the election campaign resonated with the views of many on the right in Europe. In addition, some politicians have maintained ties with him since his first term in office. One of them is Viktor Orbán. On the eve of the election, he visited Trump's residence and openly expressed his support for him, unlike other European leaders.

Orbán is trying to mediate between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia, but the effectiveness of these efforts is questionable. Trump prefers to communicate directly with Zelenskyy and Putin. In addition, Budapest was shocked that the United States continued to demand that Hungary and other European NATO members increase defense spending.

Giorgia Meloni has also known Trump for a long time. Before she was Prime Minister of Italy, she attended conservative conferences in the United States. After Trump's re-election, the two leaders have already met several times. Moreover, she was the only European leader to attend Trump's inauguration.

On a more informal level, European populists began to receive support from Elon Musk, a billionaire close to Trump and owner of the social network X. In particular, against the backdrop of early parliamentary elections in Germany, he began to openly support the Alternative for Germany and criticize the current leadership of that country. At the same time, in the UK, Musk supports the right-wing populist party Reform UK.

The question remains whether such actions have been approved by Trump. And what effect the open support of populists from overseas will have. However, the general trend to fight the leftist bias that Trump set from his first day in office (curtailing green initiatives, conservative measures in gender policy, etc.) will surely give impetus to European right-wing populists. At the very least, they will be able to use platform X to spread their narratives without any obstacles.

Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán (Photo: Getty Images)

"Social media now are doing politically what they have been doing, for example, on fashion over the last 20, 30 years. So basically they are removing borders. What happens in Poland can be discussed in the UK, and primarily what is happening now in the US has repercussions and is discussed, is heard, influences what happens here", Braghiroli says.

According to him, many right-wing parties have been watching Trump to learn from his experience. So, to some extent, we can talk about the formation of a kind of populist right-wing international.

For the far left, the influence of Trump and Musk is not so obvious. Neither of these politicians can be called supporters of left-wing ideas, but by attacking mainstream political parties, they unwittingly and indirectly help left-wing populists.

Implications for Ukraine

Regardless of one's attitude to populists, it is an objective fact that they are becoming increasingly influential in European politics. One can either ignore them or try to talk to them in the same way as mainstream parties. Moreover, we already have a positive experience in this area. In particular, Ukraine is in contact with some of these parties at the level of interparliamentary cooperation - between the relevant committee of the Verkhovna Rada and committees of other countries, as well as in the European Parliament.

"Ukraine has been framing its battle with Russia as let's say democracy against autocracy. And when this narrative started, the West was liberal democratic West. So I think that one point would be to try to maintain that, but at the same time also try to show that basically Russia is not that, let's say, Christian country, that is so much based on traditional values as they claim", Braghiroli says.

However, this may only work for some populists who have relatively tenuous ties to Russia. For the rest, a pragmatic conversation is important.

"It would be much more complicated to do such sort of discourse with, parties like AfD, Rassemblement Nationale, or the Austrian Freedom Party, because these parties that are very connected with the Kremlin. It's primarily to try to communicate to them that if Ukraine fails and Russia wins, they pay a price, Braghiroli says.

But all this may not work with everyone. Outspoken, documented agents of Russia belong behind bars.

***

Populists in Europe are a reflection of the societies they exist in. They are using the problems that traditional political elites have been unable to solve for years: stagnant economies, migration problems, and, ultimately, the lack of a vision of what the future of Europe should look like.

But to solve these problems, populists propose radical methods that the traditional establishment cannot or does not want to take for various reasons. In some cases, this approach is justified - if populist leaders, faced with reality, choose a constructive approach. And then they become fresh blood that only strengthens a country.

But there are plenty of examples of radicals choosing the path of politics for politics' sake, endlessly exploiting the irritation of the population and not aiming to solve a particular problem.

Russia, and now the United States, and some other international players are trying to use populists for their purposes. Similarly, populists themselves seek to get bonuses from cooperation with the powers that be. In each case, this works out differently, depending on the worldview and level of integrity of political leaders. Accordingly, the result of such cooperation is different. Ukraine should take all this into account. With the right approach, changes in the political landscape of Europe can be more beneficial than harmful to Kyiv.