Putin changed his plans? Why Russia stalled near Pokrovsk and what’s happening in Kursk

While the US claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants peace, the fighting on the front line has not stopped for a single day. The Russians have halted their advance in the Pokrovsk direction, are defending positions in the Kursk region, and are conducting offensive operations in southern Ukraine. The active phase of the war continues, despite Kyiv's proposals for a ceasefire and attempts by Ukraine's allies to establish a stable negotiation process.

Currently, the Kremlin's priority is the Kursk region, which Moscow seemingly needs to present the results of its "special military operation." These results will likely be showcased during the May 9 parade in front of key guests. However, in areas where the occupiers previously advanced rapidly, their progress has now noticeably slowed. Still, the Kremlin is unlikely to abandon its plans to seize more Ukrainian territories under the pretext of bringing them into constitutional order.

Kursk – Trump card for the parade

The situation in the Kursk region worsened about a month ago when the Russian army began controlling roads that were crucial for Ukrainian logistics from the Sumy region. To achieve this, Russian forces captured Sverdlikovo and entered the village of Novenke - Ukrainian territory - bringing them dangerously close to the Sudzha-Sumy road and placing it under full fire control.

By securing Sverdlikovo, the aggressor established physical control over the road leading to Sudzha. This put all Ukrainian units in the northern part of the Kursk bridgehead at risk.

At the same time, Russian forces broke through to the Ukrainian-Russian border near Kurilovka, taking another road from Sumy under fire control. Recognizing that sustaining logistics in this area was becoming impossible, the Ukrainian command began a partial withdrawal of troops.

On March 8, Russian forces launched an offensive, attempting to compress the Ukrainian bridgehead from the north. However, they were essentially advancing behind retreating Ukrainian troops. Many military analysts believed that Ukraine’s command had decided to fully withdraw from the Kursk region, but in reality, the plan was to shorten the bridgehead while maintaining a buffer zone on Russian territory. Over the past week, after the partial withdrawal of Ukrainian forces, there have been no significant changes on this front. Ukrainian officials stress that holding this buffer zone is crucial to preventing combat operations in the Sumy region.

Currently, Ukrainian units control approximately 100 square kilometers in the Kursk region. The Russians aim to drive them out by flanking Ukrainian forces from Sumy territory - through Basivka and the Yunakivka-Sudzha border checkpoint. However, there is no truth to claims that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are completely encircled.

Kursk in August, during the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (photo: Getty Images)

"In the northwest, Russian forces crossed the border, captured Novenke and areas further south, and are attempting operational encirclement. But they are failing, so talk of 10,000 Ukrainian troops being surrounded is merely a staged performance orchestrated by Putin and amplified by Trump," said former Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff Ihor Romanenko in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

For Putin, gaining control over the Kursk region is a victory that he will likely try to sell soon. Experts agree that during the May 9 Victory Day parade, the Kremlin will attempt to summarize the war’s outcomes - which, in reality, are far from what was expected at the beginning. Ironically, instead of boasting about capturing four Ukrainian regions, as initially planned, Moscow will have to frame the "heroic liberation" of Kursk as a major achievement.

The significance of the Kursk operation from Ukraine’s perspective is complex. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have managed to create and maintain a buffer zone that shields the Sumy region from invasion, says military expert Pavlo Narozhnyi.

"The road between Sudzha and Sumy is about 40 km long. If there had truly been a breakthrough, the Russians would have advanced quickly along it. Yes, the terrain is forested with rivers, making it difficult to stop them. But our task was to prevent them from reaching the Sudzha-Sumy route, and so far, we have succeeded," Narozhnyi told RBC-Ukraine.

Donetsk

While the attention of Russian forces was focused on Kursk, Ukraine managed to slightly improve its situation in the east. The Defense Forces reclaimed several positions in the Kharkiv direction, pushing the enemy north of Kupiansk and reducing its bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River. Fighting continues in Chasiv Yar, with control of the city roughly divided in half, though the situation is tending to escalate.

In Toretsk, Donetsk region, Ukrainian units also improved their positions by taking advantage of the rotation of Russian troops. After the occupiers hastily announced the city's capture, fighting returned from Toretsk's outskirts closer to the center. There is currently no clear frontline in the city - many gray zones remain. Over the past week, Russian forces have increased pressure on settlements north and south of the city. Both Toretsk and Chasiv Yar stand in the enemy's path to Kostiantynivka, a key defensive hub protecting the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

Ukrainian forces have also managed to improve the situation near Pokrovsk, which the enemy had planned to turn into the epicenter of battles during its fall-winter campaign. A series of counterattacks to the west, east, and south of the city halted the active advance of exhausted Russian troops. Military experts emphasize that these improvements coincided with the appointment of General Mykhailo Drapatyi to oversee the sector. Under his command, Ukrainian forces successfully struck the flanks where Russian forces had been advancing.

As a result, the Ukrainian army regained control over several settlements near Pokrovsk. These counterattacks are ongoing. The critical moment for the city’s defense has passed for now, although it remains possible that the occupiers will regroup and attempt to regain the initiative in this part of the front.

Pokrovsk in September (Photo: Getty Images)

On the nearby Velykomykhailivka direction, in the southern part of the Donetsk region, the pace of the Russian advance has also slowed. They are still attempting to break through to the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia road, both from the east, near Kostiantynivka, and from the south along the Mokri Yaly River.

Since Russian forces have concentrated on reclaiming Kursk and have failed to take Pokrovsk, they have shifted focus to the Novopavlivka direction, attempting to advance toward the Dnipropetrovsk region.

"After capturing Kurakhove and Dachne, they (Russians - ed.) are now fighting for Kostyantynivka, aiming to push toward the borders and advance even a few kilometers into the Dnipropetrovsk region. They have reportedly already entered the Sumy region and now they are targeting the Dnipropetrovsk region. Putin needs to wrap up the 'special military operation' and present himself as a victor, announcing this during the May 9 parade," says Romanenko.

Experts cite two reasons why Russian forces stalled in the Pokrovsk direction. The first is that part of their army had to be redeployed to Kursk, particularly drone operators. The second and more significant reason is sheer exhaustion.

"The main reason is that they launched intensive attacks from November through the end of January. These attacks severely depleted their functional units, and they have simply become extremely fatigued," adds Narozhnyi.

Zaporizhzhia and Kherson

After the conversation between US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Kremlin's plans remain unchanged - they want to capture the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

At the same time, as previously predicted by RBC-Ukraine, Russian forces have intensified their actions in the Zaporizhzhia region. The enemy in the Pyatykhatky area has advanced toward the villages of Stepove and Mali Shcherbaky. The city of Orikhiv could be a target of the enemy's offensive, especially since the occupiers have also become more active south of the city, near Robotyne. Additionally, the Russian army may aim to expand its penetration along the entire stretch from Kamianske to Shcherbaky to approach Zaporizhzhia more closely.

Nevertheless, over the past week, the enemy has not achieved significant breakthroughs in this sector. For now, this offensive remains very limited, and it is unclear whether Moscow plans to increase the intensity and scale of its actions here.

Kherson after shelling (Photo: Getty Images)

"You can check the General Staff reports to see where most of the combat clashes are happening. During the day, there are 120-150 clashes, with more than 50 of them in Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Meanwhile, Zaporizhzhia sees up to 10 clashes, which is similar to the level of activity in the Kharkiv direction. This is definitely not a major offensive or an attempt at a breakthrough," Pavlo Narozhnyi explains.

In the Kherson direction, the situation is even less dynamic. The Russian army is mainly focused on seizing islands in the Dnipro River, but Ukrainian forces, positioned on higher ground, repel them. As a result, the occupiers have been unable to establish a foothold for further offensive operations in the Kherson region.

Belgorod

Recently, Russian pro-war Telegram channels reported that Ukrainian Defense Forces were allegedly attempting to break into the Belgorod region. To support these claims, numerous photos and videos have circulated on Russian social media, supposedly showing Ukrainian forces attacking Russian armored vehicles.

The attack by small groups was reportedly launched from Maryine in the Sumy region toward Demidovka and Hrafovka. These same Russian Telegram channels noted that Ukrainian forces failed to achieve surprise, and their attack was halted. However, as of yesterday, fighting was still ongoing near the Belgorod border. Ukrainian military officials have not commented on this information.

If Ukraine has indeed decided to conduct offensive actions in this area, they are being carried out with relatively small forces. Experts suggest that this operation could be intended to divert Russian forces from the neighboring Kursk region.

"A few days ago, strikes were carried out in the Belgorod region, but Ukrainian forces failed to reach their planned target, as the enemy had fortified its defenses. While the full objective was not achieved, the Russians were forced to redeploy additional troops to this sector," says Romanenko.

It remains unclear what the final outcome of this raid was if Ukrainian forces indeed entered the Belgorod region. However, the mere possibility of such an operation suggests that the Ukrainian command is still trying to create a buffer zone beyond the border.

Meanwhile, given Russia’s attempts to intensify its offensive actions in southern Ukraine, it is clear that Putin has not abandoned his plans. However, it is doubtful that the Russian army has enough strength and resources to capture two cities and reach the borders of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions - at least for now. As a result, the Kremlin is being forced to focus on other priorities, one of which has become its own territory.

Moscow sees Ukraine's foothold on Russian soil as a potential weakness in future negotiations. Ukrainian presence on Russian territory prevents the Kremlin from dictating new "realities on the ground" or negotiating a ceasefire along the current front lines. This could explain the increased focus on the Kursk region and Putin’s refusal to commit to a full 30-day ceasefire.