Negotiations in Qatar: Will diplomacy prevent war between Iran and Israel

Contents:

• Postponed attack on Israel and Iran's new condition
• How the negotiations in Qatar went
• What Hamas says about the talks
• Plan B if the talks fail again

Since the beginning of August, the Middle East has been on the brink of a large-scale war again. On July 31, in response to another attack, Israel assassinated one of Hezbollah's leaders, Fouad Shukr, in Beirut, and the head of Hamas's political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran. In response to the attacks, Iran threatened to retaliate against Israel, but a retaliatory attack has been delayed.

Postponed attack on Israel and Iran's new condition

On July 13, Reuters reported, citing three senior Iranian officials, that Iran would refrain from attacking Israel “only if a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip is reached as a result of this week's talks.” Iran also considered sending a representative to the talks but abandoned the idea.

During the attack on October 7, 2023, the Hamas group killed more than a thousand and captured more than two hundred civilians, of whom it still holds about 116 people. In response to the attack, Israel launched a military operation in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, negotiations on the return of hostages and a ceasefire have been underway since October last year in the capital of the emirate of Qatar, Doha.

At the same time, several CBS sources reported that the Iranian government continues internal debates on a possible attack on Israel: whether to use military force or to conduct a secret special operation to target Israeli politicians, attack Israeli embassies, etc.

According to CBS, Iran's key ally, Hezbollah, which has the capability to fire on Israel from the north, does not seek a broader conflict either. At the same time, this organization constantly conducts low-intensity fires.

Thus, this week the success of the talks depended on whether a large-scale conflict in the Middle East would break out or whether it would be avoided again.

How the negotiations in Qatar went

The next round of talks took place on August 15-16, mediated by CIA Director William Burns, between Israeli Mossad Director David Barnea, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and Egyptian Intelligence Director Abbas Kamel. Hamas was not directly involved, but the group's leaders were given the outcome of the meeting.

Following the two days, representatives of the United States, Qatar, and Egypt noted that the talks were “serious and constructive.” Technical work on the details will continue in the coming days. The statement said that senior officials will reconvene in Cairo by the end of next week to try to finalize a deal.

At the talks, the United States presented a proposal that would help bridge the differences between the parties and allow for a quick implementation of a hostage deal.

The progress in the negotiations was confirmed by a senior Israeli official, according to the Jerusalem Post.

US President Joe Biden said that “there is still work to be done,” but the negotiators are closer to a deal than ever.

After each day of negotiations, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani called Iranian Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Qani. The Qatari leader briefed his Iranian counterpart on the progress of the talks and noted that escalation should be avoided to give the negotiations a chance.

It seems that Iran is waiting. According to five Israeli officials, Israeli intelligence has recorded that Hezbollah and Iran have reduced the readiness of their missile units, The New York Times reports. Israel now believes that the Iranian-led response - which has been postponed several times - will take place later. However, the situation is constantly changing.

What Hamas says about the talks

In turn, Hamas has said that it will only agree to a deal that will lead to a permanent ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip, and a “serious” exchange of prisoners.

Answering a question about the optimism expressed by the United States, Husam Badran, a member of the group's political bureau, said that Hamas sees the United States not as a mediator, but as someone who facilitates and sponsors Israel's war against the Gaza Strip.

In the essence of the talks, Hamas objects to the presence of Israeli troops on the Gaza Strip's border with Egypt, AFP sources in the militant leadership said. The group also has reservations about the conditions for the release of Hamas members from Israeli prisons in exchange for the release of hostages.

At the same time, Middle East Eye's sources in the Hamas leadership said that “the Israeli delegation’s primary efforts were to add Netanyahu’s conditions to be part of Biden’s proposal,” and Hamas categorically rejects these conditions.

“All the Israeli and international media leaks portraying the talks as positive, are unfounded and misleading. They [the Israelis - ed.] seek to gain time hoping to contain the regional escalation following the assassination of Haniyeh.”

Plan B if the talks fail again

The United States also has a parallel plan in case the talks reach a deadlock this time. The plan is to act in a similar way to what happened on April 13. Back then, Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones in response to damage to its diplomatic mission in Damascus. The United States and its allies helped Israel repel this attack.

Similarly, work is underway with Iran's allies to persuade them not to join the attack, should it occur.

In parallel with the Doha talks, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne visited Lebanon on August 14. The diplomat met with leaders of the coalition government, including those close to Hezbollah. The purpose of these talks was to “support ongoing diplomatic efforts in favor of de-escalation in the region.”
The next day, on August 15, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatti arrived in Lebanon.

And on August 16, Israel was visited by the Foreign Ministers of Great Britain and France, David Lammy and the aforementioned Stephane Séjourne.

During the first joint British-French visit in more than 10 years, the pair met with Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz and Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer.

According to Lemmy, the Israeli ministers told him that they “hope we are on the verge of an agreement.” Stéphane Sejourne, in turn, said that “it is never too late for peace.”

During the talks, they discussed, among other things, the possibility of the UK joining the defense of Israel against an Iranian attack. However, there was no meeting between Lemmy and Netanyahu, as the current UK government has dropped the previous government's objections to the request of the International Criminal Court prosecutor to issue an arrest warrant for Netanyahu.

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is also expected to visit Israel to discuss the progress of the negotiations and possible alternative scenarios. Blinken's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled for Monday, August 19.

Currently, the main problem remains Hamas's reluctance to agree to the proposals developed in Doha. Therefore, next week's diplomatic activity in the Middle East will be associated with the search for leverage over the group.

On August 16, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), in response to regular shelling, struck again at terrorist positions in Lebanon. Hezbollah military facilities in the Maroun al-Ras and Aita al-Shab areas were attacked.

Sources: public statements of the negotiators, materials from Haaretz, CBS, The New York Times, AFP, Jerusalem Post and Middle East Eye.