Golf diplomacy: How Finland's president won Trump's trust

Key questions:

• What brought the US and Finnish presidents closer

• How "golf diplomacy" can influence Trump’s positions

• Whether the Stubb–Trump friendship can withstand the test of time

Trump’s diplomacy often relies on personal sympathies and symbolic gestures. It’s no secret that the American president appreciates gestures of attention expressed through lavish gifts. World leaders have tried to win his favor as generously as possible: with an expensive plane, a replica of a golden crown, an elite golf club, and more.

However, the president of Finland—despite his country’s modest size—did not need costly gifts to build a close connection with the White House leader.

A Finn with an American heart

Today, Alexander Stubb’s role extends far beyond that of a leader of an EU and NATO member state. He has become an important link in the relationship between Ukraine and the United States.

It’s no secret that crucial contacts between Kyiv and the White House are often preceded by Stubb’s extensive coordinating conversations with both the Ukrainian and American presidents. Stubb effectively uses his friendship with Trump to convey the positions of Ukraine and Europe to the US president.

It is the Finnish president who, through informal conversations over a round of golf, has been able to convince the leader of the world’s most powerful country of the need for a tough approach toward the Kremlin.

Although Stubb was born in Helsinki, North America became a second home to him. "When I was a kid, I spent summers in the US and in Canada, and I studied in the US, so my heart is in North America quite often," the Finnish president recalled in an interview with CBC News.

This early experience laid the foundation for his academic career. Stubb speaks fluent English, French, and German, and his education includes prestigious institutions on both sides of the Atlantic. Although he initially lacked academic inclinations, he fell in love with international relations during his studies, shaping his future political path.

Meeting between Donald Trump and Alexander Stubb at the White House (photo: Getty Images)

Stubb began his career back in 1995 as an adviser in Finland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Over the next three decades, he went through all key stages of European and national politics: he was an MEP, an adviser to the European Commission president, head of the OSCE, Finland’s foreign minister, and prime minister. After a short break, he won the 2024 presidential election.

He grew up playing hockey, but at 12, he became passionate about golf. He trained seriously and even competed on the national team. His success earned him a sports scholarship to Furman University in the United States. Although he ultimately abandoned dreams of a professional golf career for politics, this hobby later gave him a unique channel of communication with Trump.

From golf to icebreakers

The American president has long been fascinated by golf. It is not just a hobby but part of his business and a method of doing deals—one he successfully brought into politics. And Stubb proved most effective in using this “golf diplomacy” in relations with Trump.

A key moment was their first game in March, when Stubb unexpectedly appeared at the private Mar-a-Lago residence and spent about seven hours with Trump, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, and legendary South African golfer Gary Player.

Trump was so impressed by Stubb’s performance that he wrote on Truth Social that Stubb was “a very good player” and that together they won the club members vs. guests tournament. And the game produced immediate effects: just hours after it ended, Trump said he was “furious” and “very angry” at Putin.

Stubb later recalled that this informal format helped them understand each other better. “You learn about a person’s character on the first hole of a golf course. You see whether they’re sharp, impatient, fun, or relaxed. I have to say, I had no awkward moments during that round,” he told Bloomberg.

Donald Trump and Alexander Stubb at the Pope’s funeral (photo: Getty Images)

During lunch, Trump—who has repeatedly claimed he has great relations with Putin—directly asked Stubb whether the Russian leader could be trusted. He received a short answer: “You cannot.”

“Stubb is just the president of a small country, but he has influence over Trump. They speak several times a week. And Trump’s stance toward Putin has become noticeably more critical after that golf game. But most importantly, EU, Ukrainian, and US leaders trust Stubb. This gives him a unique position,” Risto Penttilä, a political expert and former Finnish MP, told RBC-Ukraine.

According to the BBC, citing sources familiar with their conversations, Stubb and Trump often exchange messages or speak on the phone—sometimes weekly. This has earned Stubb the informal diplomatic nickname “the Trump whisperer.”

Penttilä believes Stubb’s success with Trump rests on three elements: “Golf, charisma, and Lindsey Graham. Senator Lindsey Graham introduced them. Golf created the opportunity. And charisma did the rest,” he said.

But charisma alone was not enough. A key factor in their growing closeness was the strategic issue of icebreakers. Finland is the world leader in building them, while the US fleet in the Arctic is critically outdated and cannot compete with Russia’s more than 40 icebreakers.

Now, a multibillion-dollar deal may cement the personal friendship between the Finnish and American presidents. During an October visit to the White House, Stubb offered Trump a contract worth over $6 billion to build up to 11 new icebreakers using advanced Finnish technology.

But only time will tell how strong and lasting this friendship will be, given Trump’s unpredictable and changeable nature.

Friendship forever—or just a temporary partnership?

Attempts to win Trump’s favor and use personal ties to influence American foreign policy have happened before in European diplomacy. French President Emmanuel Macron once enjoyed similar closeness. He also acted as an intermediary between Kyiv and Washington when Ukraine’s relations with the Trump administration were strained.

Alexander Stubb, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Donald Trump (photo: Getty Images)

Macron was one of the key initiators of the so-called Coalition of the Willing to deploy a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. Together with Zelenskyy and other European leaders, he actively promoted this idea to Trump.

However, his personal friendship with the American leader eventually faded. This illustrates how fragile diplomatic ties based entirely on Trump’s personal sympathies can be. It is unclear when—or under what circumstances—Stubb’s relationship with Trump may cool, despite the strategic icebreaker deal.

“Nothing lasts forever. Trump may start listening to someone else. The Trump administration’s attention may shift elsewhere. But as long as Stubb has this unique relationship, he will continue advocating for Ukraine,” Penttilä told the outlet.

Finland is one of Ukraine’s most generous partners. Since 2022, it has approved 30 defense aid packages worth nearly €2.9 billion. This includes military equipment from Finland’s own stockpiles as well as significant funds to purchase new weapons from Finnish defense companies for Ukraine’s needs.

In April 2024, Finland and Ukraine signed a 10-year security agreement that provided not only further military support but also funding for reconstruction and development. For example, €290 million has already been reserved for the long-term support plan.

Thus, regardless of how long the “warm relations” between Stubb and Trump last, Finnish support is unlikely to change. Finland has repeatedly confirmed its intention to remain a reliable ally of Ukraine.