Cold shower for Zelenskyy: How NABU-SAPO scandal affects Ukrainian President

Key questions:

• What are MPs from the Servant of the People political party demanding in exchange for voting on NABU and SAPO?
• Why did Zelenskyy abandon the idea of limiting the powers of these bodies?
• What consequences will this story have for Ukraine-EU relations?
• Why could the Verkhovna Rada become less governable after the scandal?

Today, on July 31, the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's Parliament) must find a formal way out of the deepest domestic political crisis since the start of the full-scale war. For the first time in three and a half years, Ukraine has witnessed mass protests. For the first time, the Ukrainian government has been criticized not just by Viktor Orbán or Robert Fico, but also by entirely reasonable pro-Ukrainian European leaders.

After speaking with many sources in political and diplomatic circles in Ukraine and the West, RBC-Ukraine has concluded: even if the Rada successfully votes today to restore NABU and SAPO, and Ursula von der Leyen and other Europeans tweet positively about it, the crisis will still have deep, long-term consequences - both for Ukraine's domestic politics and for its relations with the West.

Verkhovna Rada: bargaining, depression, acceptance

"Everyone's angry, agitated, feeling betrayed," said one MP from Servant of the People just days before the vote, describing the mood within the party. The reason is clear: MPs were deceived into returning to the chamber during promised holidays, their hands passed the most scandalous bill in years, then they were asked to reverse their own decision, and in the end, were essentially made the scapegoats.

However, as RBC-Ukraine discovered, the motivations behind MPs' votes to eliminate NABU and SAPO varied widely. Some believed the stories claiming American Republicans wanted these bodies dismantled as "Democrat projects." Some wanted to prove their loyalty to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, treating the vote as a kind of test. Some genuinely didn't understand what they were voting for, and others were openly pressured from "above."

But many MPs who came to the Rada on July 22, expecting to vote on a "statement to the US Congress," were delighted to find they'd be voting to slash the powers of anti-corruption agencies. They pushed the "yes" button with pleasure.

"Those claiming they didn't know, didn't see, didn't understand - they're being a bit dishonest. Sure, the text was shown at the last minute. But MPs had already been hinted a week earlier that a 'gift' awaited. And in many informal talks, it became clear what was coming," a source in the Servant of the People party told RBC-Ukraine.

Some ruling party MPs who supported bill No. 12414 later stayed quiet. Others publicly defended the party line.

Meeting of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (photo: Getty Images)

But just a day later, by July 23, the party's stance began to shift, eventually turning 180 degrees. Zelenskyy submitted a new bill to parliament that essentially rolled the situation back to square one, canceling the previous changes.

All RBC-Ukraine sources agreed there were two reasons for this: street protests and Western reaction, though it's unclear which had more weight. In any case, the President's team seriously miscalculated both. According to one insider, the European response wouldn't have been so harsh if so many Ukrainians hadn't taken to the streets during wartime.

"Neither Zelenskyy nor anyone from his team has ever been on the Maidans - they don't understand these dynamics," said an MP who opposed bill No. 12414.

At the same time, people in the President's circle say Zelenskyy always tries to gauge public reaction before major decisions.

"Of course, we see a new political generation that revealed itself on the streets. We need to build emotional connections with them. They aren't covered by traditional media, they have their own worldview and interests, and now the state must be attentive enough to engage with this political generation," a Zelenskyy team member said.

The Presidential team also misjudged the European reaction. For over three years of full-scale war, the EU had maintained an unofficial moratorium on criticizing Ukraine - to avoid giving ammo to anti-Ukrainian forces, to preserve unity, and to prioritize winning the war. This even extended to closed-door discussions, sources in both Kyiv and Brussels confirmed.

"Clearly, the President wasn't given a full risk analysis, particularly regarding relations with the EU and donors. And no one can ever truly predict the streets. Anyone who says otherwise is lying," a source in the Presidential Office told RBC-Ukraine.

Objectively speaking, most of Zelenskyy's time is consumed by war-related issues, so it's not surprising that he relied on his inner circle's judgment regarding public backlash to the NABU/SAPO issue.

Ultimately, it's the MPs who must dig the country out of this crisis. This time, unlike on July 22, no one is being dragged back from vacations. "We're counting on their conscience now, we're explaining, apologizing," said one of the Servants of the People party leaders.

According to him, many MPs from the ruling party now see themselves as victims and feel entitled to negotiate different terms. "They're saying things we weren't even allowed to think since 2019," he said, describing internal party chats. Some want guarantees that NABU and SAPO won’t come after them once their powers are restored.

"I don't think NABU and SAPO will go wild. Especially now, with Western partners watching them even more closely. Probably fewer cases over undeclared trailers from 1988, and more focus on real illegal enrichment. They've got stuff ready to go. It can't be hidden anymore - it'll have to come out," said a powerful MP from the Servant of the People party.

Other demands include: coordination of local administration appointments with majoritarian MPs, regular presidential meetings with the faction, personal presentation of key bills, etc.

Some MPs from the ruling party have said, "This will be our last vote." They'll vote to reverse the NABU/SAPO changes, for Ukraine's sake, but expect to be left alone afterward.

Protest action against bill No. 12414 (photo: Vitalii Nosach/RBC-Ukraine)

Still, as RBC-Ukraine previously reported, votes for the president’s bill will be there. The figure of 70 "dissenters" in the pro-presidential faction, recently reported by The Financial Times, is widely considered exaggerated.

"In reality, there aren't 70, or even 50 or 100 MPs who are categorically against and refuse to vote. Most understand there's no other way. Yes, some people who praised the July 22 vote will now struggle to reverse their stance, but that's it," a ruling party source said.

In addition to his own faction, the President's team expects support from opposition parties European Solidarity, Holos, and some MPs from groups like the former Opposition Platform For Life, For the Future, and Trust parties. A source in Yurii Boyko's group confirmed they would back the new bill despite previously supporting the controversial one.

"Yes, this was a carefully orchestrated operation prepared about two weeks in advance. But few MPs understood the consequences because many were told it was coordinated with the West. Now, not voting for the new bill that restores everything is simply not an option - we've been warned of serious consequences, including loss of Western support," said one former Opposition Platform For Life MP.

The stance of the Batkivshchyna party remains unclear. Last week, they supported the bill cutting NABU/SAPO's independence. Then, Yulia Tymoshenko's team submitted an alternative to the President's bill. Still, at the committee meeting, Zelenskyy’s bill was unanimously approved, even by Batkivshchyna. Regardless, the bill is likely to pass even without their votes.

But the story won't end there.

Ukraine under microscope and Zelenskyy's anti-rating

"The West has long turned a blind eye to reform issues. This crisis would've happened sooner or later. But now, it's definitely accelerating," said one RBC-Ukraine source about future EU relations. Everyone, from officials to European diplomats, agrees things won't be the same.

We can expect the EU to be much less flexible when it comes to reform benchmarks that Ukraine must meet for the next funding tranche. Reforms will be monitored more closely. "Everyone knows Europe won't ease off now," said a government source.

Still, if today's vote succeeds, immediate consequences like funding freezes can be avoided. For instance, the next tranche from frozen Russian assets is expected in early August. If the NABU/SAPO issue is resolved on July 31, that timeline stays intact.

As for the €1.5 billion shortfall from the Ukraine Facility program, one source explained that funding always depended on the percentage of targets met. Before this scandal, there had been a gentleman's agreement with Europe to hold off on publishing their evaluation until September. That deal has now been scrapped for obvious reasons.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ursula von der Leyen, and António Costa (photo: Getty Images)

But even the funds not yet received under the Ukraine Facility can be obtained later this year, provided that reforms in a wide variety of sectors are accelerated.

"There's still a lot ahead, and it's not just about the Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine (according to RBC-Ukraine, Kyiv might be given until September to resolve this issue - ed.), the 'Lozovyi amendments' (amendments to the Criminal Procedure Code of Ukraine that came into force on March 16, 2018 - ed.) will also have to be scrapped, and a whole bunch of other things," says one of the leaders of Servant of the People.

Most of these tasks won't be possible without a normally functioning Rada.

That is already one of the internal consequences of the story with SAPO and NABU. The leadership of Servant of the People suspects that before the next sessions, roughly by Independence Day, they'll have to "let go" of some MPs - clearly, this is primarily about list-based deputies who can be quickly replaced.

As for the rest of the parliamentary group, Zelenkyy's will now, obviously, have to work more closely with them, and the Presidential Office seems to understand this. "Parliamentary manageability will worsen no matter what," admits an influential MP from Servant of the People in a conversation with RBC-Ukraine.

"There's also the task of not 'killing off' the Svyrydenko (newly appointed Ukraine's Prime Minister - ed.) government. She'll still have to negotiate $40 billion for next year, plus all kinds of military aid and so on. And she already had such a start to her premiership that, well, d***…" says the interlocutor, again emphasizing that with a parliament that has gone through unprecedented stress, the task will become even more difficult.

"Everyone understands that, for example, by the time we need to vote on the bill for the first postwar elections, it would be highly desirable to have a relatively functional Rada," says one of the Servant of the People MPs.

Of course, the story with NABU and SAPo also hit President Volodymyr Zelenskyy personally. As members of the ruling team say, he doesn't believe that he alone should bear personal responsibility for what happened - he believes the whole team should be held accountable.

However, Zelenskyy (like almost all his predecessors, in fact) has done a great deal himself to ensure that the public assigns him personal blame for any failure (just as they credit him with any successes).

So far, too little time has passed to assess the direct impact of the NABU and SAPO scandal on Zelenskyy's ratings. One can only assume that the "rally around the flag" effect that was observed after the Oval Office scandal with Trump is now completely exhausted.

One of RBC-Ukraine's sources, well-versed in electoral processes, also pointed out another aspect - Zelenskyy is now threatened not so much by a drop in approval ratings, but by a rise in disapproval ratings, which is more dangerous. As the source explains, during previous declines, in early 2022 before the full-scale invasion, or in late 2023 when the counteroffensive didn't happen, Zelenskyy's support dropped, but his disapproval rating did not rise.

"Roughly speaking, this means that you stop believing in a particular politician, but you don't think he's a scoundrel - you just start considering alternatives," the source explains.

After the current scandal, most of the people RBC-Ukraine spoke to over the past few days agree that the perfect image Zelenskyy had gained during the full-scale war will be significantly scratched.

Simply put, it's now acceptable to criticize the President on everything. "Shifting attention, as usual, won't work anymore. Everyone now understands that, for example, war and corruption are simply two different tracks," says one of the Servant of the People MPs. This trend, potentially, is exactly what could drive Zeelenskyy's disapproval rating up.

So far, approval vs disapproval ratings remain only a theoretical issue. But they will quickly turn into a real political factor as soon as prospects for a ceasefire appear on the horizon. And lately, talk of a ceasefire in political backrooms has been growing more frequent.