Black swan: What postponement of Ramstein meeting with Biden means for Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Joe Biden (photo: Office of the President of Ukraine)
A Ramstein meeting was scheduled to take place in Germany on October 12, with the participation of US President Joe Biden, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and many other world leaders. However, Biden postponed the trip due to the need to prepare for a devastating hurricane in the US. RBC-Ukraine explains what this means for Ukraine's plans and diplomacy.
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At the 25th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, commonly known as the Ramstein Group, around 20 heads of state and government were expected to attend. This would have been the first Ramstein meeting held at such a high level, as each participating country is typically represented by its Defense Minister.
It was planned to be the second major event in the context of presenting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's victory plan. The first step was to present it to US President Joe Biden and presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
In addition, Biden was expected to meet with other NATO leaders. Therefore, the US President was the most awaited figure in Germany. With Biden soon leaving office, there were expectations of a significant gesture towards Ukraine that could be recorded as part of his "political legacy."
However, unexpectedly, Biden postponed the trip. The official reason was the powerful Hurricane Milton, which was set to strike Florida within hours. Simultaneously, the US was recovering from another severe hurricane, Helen.
At another time, this likely wouldn’t have resulted in the cancellation of the trip. However, the final stage of the presidential election campaign is underway, so a visit to Europe while the US faces a natural disaster would have harmed Kamala Harris's standing. Donald Trump would certainly seize the opportunity to promote the narrative, "while Americans are suffering from a hurricane, the Democrats went to help Ukraine."
This turn of events became a true "black swan," meaning an unexpected event that changes, or at least adjusts, the previous calculations in the diplomacy of Ukraine and its allies. The postponement could play either against or in favor of Ukraine.
Political aspect: Biden's legacy
Ukrainian diplomats and Biden's advisors are appealing to the thesis of Biden's "political legacy." This issue is significant for the team of the current US President.
"The theme of legacy has been raised by the advisors across all of the president's tracks. They want his term to conclude with something meaningful, with concrete decisions regarding each track. And Ukraine is one of them," says Victoria Vdovychenko, co-director of the Future of Ukraine program at the Cambridge University Geopolitics Center, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
The challenge for Ukrainian diplomacy is to convey to the White House that Biden needs to leave his mark in history, specifically regarding Ukraine. And this is not easy.
Vdovychenko's contacts within US expert circles indicate that Biden has a strong reluctance towards Ukraine's NATO membership, as well as discussions about it. This was clearly evident during the NATO summits in Vilnius and Washington. However, now the ice has begun to thaw, and there are attempts to revive this idea.
According to RBC-Ukraine, dialogue with Biden's team on this issue has continued to the last and will continue. There is still time to press the US President on this matter.
In addition to dealing with the aftermath of the hurricanes, Biden's team has another reason to postpone the trip to Germany.
The aftermath of the hurricane in the United States (photo: Getty Images)
Israel has launched a ground operation in Lebanon against Hezbollah. In response, Iran, the group's sponsor, has attacked Israel with missiles. The situation is currently uncertain, and it remains unclear whether the escalation will continue.
"Right now, all attention will be focused on the Middle East, and the Americans fully understand that addressing issues there is much more complicated than in Ukraine. This will draw greater efforts and media and expert attention," says Vdovychenko.
In this context, the postponement of the meeting in Ramstein may, surprisingly, work in Ukraine's favor. However, much depends on whether the situation in the Middle East escalates further or stabilizes for a while.
When it comes to Biden's political legacy, he and his team will also take into account the context of the election, Dmytro Zhmailo, executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, tells RBC-Ukraine.
"When it comes to political statements, I believe that could be possible. But it's no secret that, in the context of the electoral process, this would only happen if it benefits the Democratic Party. Biden is, of course, part of this electoral process and will naturally support his successor, Kamala Harris. However, I don’t think anything like this could happen specifically in the Ramstein format," said Zhmailo.
Military aspect: Weapons for winter
The Ramstein format has always been more about cooperation and resolving technical issues regarding assistance to Ukraine. According to Zhmailo, the meeting on October 12 was prepared with the understanding that the US would be preoccupied with domestic politics in the near future.
Ahead of the Ramstein meeting, leaders from the US, Germany, France, and the UK were also set to meet in a more limited format. As announced by the German Foreign Ministry, they intended to focus on reassuring Ukraine that military and financial support will continue, as well as finding ways to achieve a just and sustainable peace.
"Globally, the Ramstein format is undergoing very significant changes. This has been the line of the United States, and Kyiv has always demanded leadership from the US because America is our largest donor of military supplies. Undoubtedly, during this period of uncertainty (after the US elections - ed.), European partners and formats of cooperation and assistance from NATO will become more important. However, we will be definitely provided with some more or less significant assistance at Ramstein," says Zhmailo.
He states that discussions still revolve around long-range weapons, including ATACMS, Storm Shadow, Scalp, and JASSM. Additionally, the agenda includes issues related to artillery shells, air defense ammunition, and accelerating the supply of F-16 aircraft.
"The primary efforts of the Ukrainian delegation are to push beyond established limits. This is part of President Zelenskyy's victory plan. To begin turning the situation in our favor, we need to move away from the current established practices," the expert notes.
After presenting the victory plan during a visit to the US on October 6, a new Ukrainian delegation led by Chief of the General Staff Anatolii Barhylevych and Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Minister of Justice Olha Stefanishyna went to the US. Additionally, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and Defense Minister Umerov are working with partners.
"Preparatory work is ongoing, including the delegation of Barhylevych, the Chief of the General Staff, who is currently briefing our Western partners to finalize assistance packages, considering that there will certainly be a certain period of interruption. And again, it is possible that the North Atlantic Alliance will now play a more significant role in supplying everything necessary for Ukraine," says Zhmailo.
For Ukraine, the postponement of the Ramstein meeting is unfortunate news but not overly critical at this time. Communication with allies continues despite some political and other nuances.
Sources: material by CNN and Bloomberg, as well as comments by Victoria Vdovychenko, co-director of the Future of Ukraine program at the Cambridge University Geopolitics Centre, and Dmytro Zhmailo, executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation.
