Battle for Velyka Novosilka: Why holding village is important for Ukrainian army
Photo: Ukrainian Armed Forces avoided encirclement in the southern part and retreated to the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka (Getty Images)
Russia claims full occupation of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk region. The Khortytsia operational and tactical group of troops refutes this, stating that Ukrainian forces still control certain positions closer to the outskirts of the village, and fighting continues there.
What is happening in Velyka Novosilka, why the village is important, and the Russian objectives were outlined in the material by RBC-Ukraine below.
Contents:
- Why Velyka Novosilka is important and what's happening there
- Where Russian forces may move after the full occupation of Velyka Novosilka
Why Velyka Novosilka is important and what's happening there
Velyka Novosilka is one of the most important frontline areas in Donetsk region. It is located on the Vremivka salient, which holds strategic significance for both sides due to its location at the intersection of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.
The village has been on the front lines since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Efforts by the enemy to seize the settlement in the summer of 2022 failed, and Ukraine managed to push back the Russian forces during a counteroffensive in 2023. However, the following year, Russian advances on this axis resumed after they took control of the towns of Vuhledar and Kurakhove.
Velyka Novosilka remained an important defensive hub for the Ukrainian army. However, the situation worsened around the village in the fall of 2024. Russian forces increased pressure in an attempt to cut off Ukrainian logistics and encircle the settlement.
On Sunday, January 26, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported the capture of Velyka Novosilka. Videos began circulating showing the Russian army hanging the Russian flags in various parts of the village.
The Ukrainian project DeepState reported that Russian forces had taken control of the village of Vremivka and nearly fully occupied the neighboring Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian officials have not confirmed this information. Meanwhile, the Khortytsia operational and tactical group of troops, which is responsible for the area, deny the loss of the village.
Map: DeepState shows the village as almost fully occupied (deepstatemap)
"There is fighting ongoing, there are still Ukrainian troops and positions there. They are destroying Russians and Russian equipment. I cannot specify where they are, as it would jeopardize the operation... According to my information, our troops are not surrounded. This was avoided," said Viktor Trehubov, spokesman for the Khortytsia operational and tactical group of troops, yesterday.
Meanwhile, soldiers of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, holding the defense near Velyka Novosilka, stated that they had retreated from areas where there was a risk of encirclement. They said that when the enemy entered the settlement, "they fell into a fire trap."
"Our units, using weather conditions, skillfully withdrew from areas where encirclement was a threat. This does not mean that we have completely left the town, the fighting continues in Velyka Novosilka. All actions are aimed at minimizing our own losses and maximizing enemy casualties," the brigade emphasized.
They also added that the Russians have a significant advantage in infantry numbers, while the number of artillery and FPV drones is approximately the same. However, the soldiers stress that the enemy will not be able to continue advancing from Velyka Novosilka, as they have encountered a significant obstacle - the Mokri Yaly River, which cuts through the settlement.
Today, the Khortytsia operational and tactical group of troops stated that Ukrainian troops, in order to avoid encirclement, had withdrawn from Velyka Novosilka. However, they continue to hold some positions within the settlement, closer to its outskirts.
"Any other actions could have led to their encirclement and unnecessary losses among Ukrainian defenders. Therefore, as of now, the Russians have entered a significant part of the settlement, while the Ukrainians hold certain positions to prevent their further movement," Trehubov said.
Where Russian forces may move after the full occupation of Velyka Novosilka
According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based on geolocated footage, Russian forces have managed to occupy 89% of Velyka Novosilka. Analysts assess that after the full occupation of the settlement, Russia has several options for advancing, which could reveal its plans for a spring-summer offensive. Based on ISW's analysis, here are a few potential directions for Russian actions after capturing Velyka Novosilka:
Option 1: The Russian command could leave units in the western part of the Donetsk region and continue advancing toward the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, which runs north and west of Velyka Novosilka. This would indicate that Russia prioritizes advancing to the administrative border as quickly as possible compared to other directions in Donetsk or other near-front areas.
Option 2: The Russian army might decide to keep some units in the Velyka Novosilka area to continue limited attacks and block Ukrainian forces there, while redeploying the main part of their units to another section of the front.
Option 3: The Russian army could resume intensive combat operations in Zaporizhzhia region in 2025.
Map: ISW analysts report that the Russian forces control 89% of the territory of the village (understandingwar.org)
As the former Deputy Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko emphasized in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel, Ukrainian forces currently hold a small northwestern portion of Velyka Novosilka. However, the issue is not about percentages, but rather from a military standpoint, how the combat operations will proceed.
"Because at the moment, in terms of a defensive stronghold, it has effectively lost its significance. The question, in my opinion, is about establishing defensive lines outside of Velyka Novosilka and preventing rapid advancement, as we saw, for example, after Avdiivka, Ocheretyne, and others," Romanenko said.
Map: Possible direction where Russian forces could go in case of occupation of Velyka Novosilka (deepstatemap)
He also did not rule out that, in the case of full occupation of the settlement, the Russian forces consider both options: moving towards the Ukrainian defense line of Komar - Bahatyr - Kostiantynopil or heading west to the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk region.
According to him, it is "very tempting" for the Russian forces to advance even just 100 meters into the Dnipropetrovsk region. This would allow them to once again flaunt their flags, as they like to do, and demonstrate that they are already fighting there.
Before the full-scale war, Velyka Novosilka had a population of around 6,000 people. However, by September 2024, only about 300 residents remained, having adapted to life in basements due to daily Russian shelling. The settlement has no functioning shops or pharmacies. There is no electricity supply, and buildings in Velyka Novosilka have been destroyed by constant Russian shelling.
Sources: the statements of Viktor Trehubov, spokesman for the Khortytsia operational and tactical group of troops, 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, DeepState and the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyst, as well as an exclusive commentary by Ihor Romanenko, former Deputy Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
