Why Russia won't be able to put pressure on Azerbaijan: Ukrainian analyst explains
Photo: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (Getty Images)
Russia has been actively demonstrating that it is ready to engage in another conflict in the post-Soviet space, this time with Azerbaijan. But in reality, the Kremlin does not have enough strength for a second front, and Türkiye is standing behind Azerbaijan, according to Andrii Kovalenko, head of the National Security and Defense Council's Center for Countering Disinformation.
"After the full-scale war against Ukraine, Moscow's influence in the region has weakened so much that even former allies are acting independently. And they have not been allies for a long time. And Azerbaijan has long since left the Kremlin's orbit," Kovalenko noted.
The head of the CPD reminded that Russia now has no leverage over Baku at all, neither economic nor military. The ban on imports of Azerbaijani fruits and vegetables will primarily affect the Russian market. Azerbaijan does not need Russian energy carriers.
The Kremlin is not able to allocate military resources to attack Azerbaijan. In addition, Türkiye stands behind Baku and President Ilham Aliyev. And for the Russians, spoiling relations with Turkish leader Recep Erdogan is tantamount to suicide.
"Z-bloggers and pro-war Russian experts are again stirring up hysteria: they demand to strike Baku with the Oreshnik, or call for a blockade of Azerbaijan. But this only demonstrates the weakness of Moscow, which is bogged down in Ukraine, has lost Armenia, lost Central Asia, lost influence in the Middle East, and is increasingly at risk of losing the Caucasus altogether," Kovalenko added.
He concluded that Russia is not capable of even hybrid pressure without harming itself. Attacking oil fields in Azerbaijan means leaving traces and dealing not only with Baku, but also with Ankara.
"As long as Putin is playing a new imperial game, food prices in Russia will go even higher. And there are no more forces on the second front," Kovalenko summarized.
On July 20, a Ukrainian journalist presented Aliyev with chevrons of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, after which he thanked her and told her to continue her work. This, in turn, caused hysteria among the Russians.
And on July 19, during a speech to the press, the Azerbaijani president was asked what he would advise Ukrainians as the leader of a nation that, after three decades, had managed to restore its territorial integrity. In response, he said that one should never agree to occupation and never surrender.
"I think this is in line with the aspirations of the Ukrainian people. Never agree to occupation. This is the main advice. This is what we did," Aliyev said.
