What will happen to dollar and inflation in Ukraine: bankers improved forecasts
Ukrainian bankers improved their forecasts (Photo: RBC-Ukrain, Vitalii Nosach)
Inflation and exchange rate expectations in Ukraine continue to improve. According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) website data, bankers have updated their forecasts.
Dollar exchange rate
According to the NBU, bankers predict the hryvnia exchange rate for the next 12 months in July to be 40.54 UAH/USD. In April, they expected a rate of 41.38 UAH/USD.
Furthermore, financial analysts expect a rate of 39.54 UAH/USD (forecast for June), the general population of Ukraine expects 39.66 UAH/USD (data for June), and enterprise executives expect 40.43 UAH/USD (May).
The dynamics of Ukraine's foreign exchange market in recent months have been significantly better than predicted by analysts. The average cash dollar selling rate in Ukraine fell by 0.9% in June to 37.24 UAH, reaching the lowest level since May of the previous year. Compared to December 2022, the rate decreased by 7.3%.
Inflation
Bankers have also improved their expectations for consumer price growth over the next 12 months to 13.6% from 17.4% in April.
Financial analysts expect inflation to be 13.5% (forecast for June), the general population of Ukraine expects 14.0% (data for June), and enterprise executives expect 15.7% (May).
According to the State Statistics Service data, annual inflation in Ukraine slowed to 12.8% in June, the lowest level since the beginning of the war. In June, prices rose by 0.8%, and since the beginning of the year, they have increased by 4.6%. The NBU expects inflation to be less than 15% by the end of the year and less than 10% in 2024.
