US economy will lose 8% of GDP if Trump deports illegal immigrants

During the election campaign and immediately after taking office, Trump announced his intention to deport all illegal immigrants. According to estimates, their number could be as high as 11 million.

Starting on Friday, January 24, the new White House administration began sending deportees back to Guatemala and El Salvador on American military aircraft.

Experts, strategists, and economists from Wall Street believe that if Trump's plans are fully implemented, it could lead to serious economic turmoil.

Inflation will rise, and agriculture and construction will experience labor shortages. An analysis by Bloomberg Economics showed that deporting all illegal immigrants from the country would reduce America's gross domestic product by 8%.

"If we are talking about a rapid deportation of 10 million people, I think it is fair to say that while the impact would not be on the same scale as the pandemic era, it could be close," said Siebert chief investment officer Mark Malek.

Amid concerns about the potential economic consequences, the S&P 500 index has updated its record high. Analysts attribute this to the sentiment of traders who believe it is unlikely that Donald Trump will be able to implement the plan to deport all 10-11 million illegal immigrants.

"People forget very quickly that often there is a lot more talk than actual execution, especially with mid-term elections coming up in 20 months. So we do not want to over-extrapolate what could be a short-term blip and get it wrong," explained Todd Ahlsten, chief investment officer at Parnassus Investments.

Yesterday, Reuters reported that Mexico did not want to accept a plane deporting migrants from the United States. In particular, the country rejected Trump's request and did not allow the aircraft to land.

Earlier the US president declared a state of emergency along the border with Mexico, sending more than a thousand additional troops there.