Ukrainian forces foil Russia's plans for Donetsk region — ISW
Photo: Russia is losing more than it is gaining (Getty Images)
The Russian army is not winning on the front lines: since early September, it has lost more territory than it has captured, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW states that, as of September 1, 2026, the Russians have lost 241 square kilometers more of Ukrainian territory than they have captured.
The pace of the Russian advance has slowed significantly compared to 2025. In 2026, the Russian army has been advancing an average of 0.25 square kilometers per day.
Ukrainian troops, on the other hand, have been regaining the initiative in several sectors of the front throughout 2026.
The most recent such operation, Operation Vivaldi, took place in the Lyman sector. During this operation, over 270 square kilometers were liberated, thwarting the Russian command's plans to encircle the Fortress Belt.
Russian casualties rising
The Russian army's monthly casualties are increasing, and the recruitment of new troops is not keeping pace with these losses.
Since the beginning of October 2026, Russia has lost nearly 37,000 troops. For the entire month of October 2025, losses totaled 31,270.
The ISW notes that in the coming months, the Kremlin may face new challenges if Ukraine continues to maintain the initiative and thwart Russia's offensive plans.
In that case, Russian commanders may press the Kremlin leader even more insistently to carry out a mobilization in one form or another.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that if Ukrainian forces withdrew from Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the Russians would advance further.
According to him, the route from there leads to Pavlohrad and Dnipro.
Anastasia Shevchenko, deputy spokesperson for the South group, also reported that the Russians had completed preparations for mechanized attacks in the south.
The Huliaipole sector remains the most challenging spot there, with 10 to 20 clashes reported daily.
