Ukraine’s war effort could hinge on 4 million drones, warns EU commissioner

According to him, in 2025 Ukraine will need to produce around four million drones to cover the front line.

"On the 1,200km front line, they have created what they call ‘Death Valley’, a 10 to 15km-wide zone where nothing can move without being hit by drones. Around 80 per cent of hits are by drones – a regular tank entering the zone survives an average of six minutes. But the Russians know how to use drones too, which is why Ukraine calculates that it will be producing four million drones this year to cover that front line," the European Commissioner explained.

Kubilius also compared these needs to the situation in EU countries.

"Lithuania, my country, has a 200km border with Kaliningrad and a 700km border with Belarus – we would need around 3 million drones a year," he said.

At the same time, the European Commissioner emphasized that drones need to be updated every few months.

According to him, the traditional model of the defense industry, which is based on long-term contracts and stability, does not meet the requirements of modern warfare.

"It’s a challenge we’re discussing with NATO – what new warfare means and how capability targets should be modified," the European Commissioner stated.

He shared advice from Ukrainians: form teams of engineers, designers, operators, and digital specialists, keep stockpiles of components, but do not produce drones in advance, as it's unclear which specific types will be needed.

Kubilius also discussed another element of Ukraine’s innovative system: bonuses for drone operators based on their confirmed targets.

"Destroying expensive Russian systems brings 200 points compared with 6 points for hitting a soldier. Operators compete for pride, and the winners get the best available drones," he said.

"This isn’t only about drones, they aren’t the only weapon we will need; it’s about doing defence in a way that’s really different from traditional warfare," Kubilius concluded.

Ukraine-France drone production

Earlier, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov held a meeting with his French counterpart Sébastien Lecornu, during which he proposed joining efforts in the field of defense production. He emphasized that Ukraine possesses unique combat experience, while France has strong manufacturing capabilities — a foundation for effective cooperation.

The issue of joint production was also discussed during a meeting in the Ramstein format. According to Umerov, Ukraine regularly receives proposals from partners to build facilities for the production of modern weapons. Some countries are ready to begin licensed production of Ukrainian designs on their territory.

The French Defense Minister confirmed Renault’s involvement in drone production on Ukrainian soil, calling this cooperation unprecedented. The specifications of the future drones have not yet been disclosed, but Lecornu noted that the new devices will also be used by the French military, particularly for training and preparation for potential crises.