Ukraine's population could fall below 10 million: Worst case scenario
Ukraine’s population may decline to 10 million (Photo: Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
The UN’s baseline scenario projects that Ukraine’s population will decline to 15.2 million by the year 2100. However, in a worst-case scenario, the population could drop to fewer than 10 million. This is according to research from the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).
The baseline scenario, based on average fertility rates, assumes a gradual increase in the birth rate from 1.0 to 1.5 children per woman, which remains below the replacement level.
According to UN estimates, if no policy interventions are implemented, Ukraine’s population will decline to 32 million by 2050.
At the same time, the demographic structure will begin to shift significantly. Starting in 2070, the number of elderly people (aged 60+) will exceed the number of working-age individuals (18–59)—11.1 million versus 10.9 million.
This signals a critical level of population aging, creating immense pressure on healthcare systems, social support structures, and pension provision, the KSE notes.
Ukraine’s population
According to the UN, Ukraine’s population declined from 44.3 million to 37.9 million between 2021 and 2024. This drop was primarily due to significant emigration—6.9 million people—and a negative natural population balance (more deaths than births).
Estimates from the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine show that as of July 2024, the population stood at 35.8 million, including 31.1 million people living in government-controlled territories.
In April, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s population to 33.9 million by 2030.
