Ukraine's intel chief explains why peace agreement may be possible in February 2026
Photo: Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (RBC-Ukraine)
Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov, in an interview with Suspilne, said that February 2026 will present a window for achieving a peace agreement in Ukraine. He described it as the most favorable period for both Ukraine and Russia to make meaningful progress.
Budanov was reminded that in a previous interview, he also noted February 2026 as the most favorable time for a peace deal. Journalists asked why this particular month represents such a "window."
"Calculations show it is the most favorable period for both Russia and Ukraine to achieve something. It is related to military activity, the heating season, and many other factors. There are a lot of variables. I am just giving you the conclusion," Budanov said.
He also highlighted that Russia's 2026 budget already looks catastrophic. Nearly half of the expenditures are allocated to defense needs, while other programs are sharply reduced.
"Therefore, they have already made unpopular and difficult decisions. Very painful for them. This is another explanation regarding the negotiation process. The 2026 defense budget, overall, including defense and security forces, is 46%. No country can develop or move forward normally while spending 46% on war. It's impossible," said the chief of defense intelligence.
Budanov added that Russia's economic difficulties will not directly affect the battlefield but will influence Moscow's stance on ending the war. A full economic collapse in Russia, at the current pace, is still a long way off.
"But is Russia ready to wait that long? That's another question. The problems are already significant," Budanov concluded.
In November, Budanov explained why Russia sharply increased attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. He said the Kremlin hopes this threat will pressure Ukraine into negotiations on Russian terms. However, he stressed that this factor is limited. The Russians can "play this card" only until the end of February 2026.
At the same time, Budanov said that the "window of opportunity" to end the war in Ukraine will open only in February 2026. He added that, in his view, ending the war will not be possible without the help of US President Donald Trump.
US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker recently made similar predictions, stating that resolving the war in Ukraine and securing sustainable peace could be possible within the next 90 days. This sets a potential timeframe of January-March 2026, consistent with Budanov's projections.
