Ukraine has enough weapons to last until summer without US aid - WSJ
Photo: Ukraine will have enough weapons at least until the summer (Getty Images)
Without US military aid, Ukraine has enough weapons to continue fighting at the current pace until the summer. After that, Kyiv could find itself out of ammunition and unable to use some of its most advanced weapons, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Cutting off US military aid is the worst-case scenario, a senior aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, adding that it would mean Ukraine would have to increase its military production and get more from Europeans.
Europe is preparing to try to fill the deficit. In 2024, the EU, the UK, and Norway will jointly provide Ukraine with about $25 billion in military aid, more than the US sent that year. The continent has significantly increased its production of artillery shells, and discussions are underway to increase EU aid to $30 billion this year.
Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the United States has sent almost $70 billion in military aid. That's about the same amount as all of Ukraine's other Western allies combined, according to the Kiel Institute for World Economics.
But Ukraine has also created its own powerful military industry, which now produces $30 billion worth of weapons a year, six times more than the year before. In 2024, the country produced about 1.5 million drones, which have become its main form of defense along the front lines, allowing Kyiv to deter Russian attacks with minimal losses. This year, officials say, they plan to produce 3,000 missiles and 30,000 long-range drones.
Overall, Ukraine currently produces or finances about 55% of its military equipment. The United States supplies about 20% and Europe 25%, according to one Western official.
Indispensable weapons
But some US supplies, including advanced air defense systems, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, navigation systems, and long-range rocket artillery, will be virtually impossible to replace in the short term. Europe simply does not produce enough - or, in some cases, not at all.
According to government officials and analysts, once the US stockpile runs out, Ukraine's ability to launch long-range strikes and defend its rear positions will suffer.
The specter of cutting off US aid has been looming for more than a year. During the campaign, Trump repeatedly criticized the billions sent to Kyiv, and many Republicans in Congress opposed the latest aid package for Ukraine, which was approved last April.
Before leaving office, President Joe Biden tried to allow Ukraine to continue fighting as long as possible. His administration sent weapons from existing US stockpiles and signed contracts with the US defense industry to purchase ammunition, air defense interceptors, vehicles, and other materials. These supplies will last until 2026.
Now Trump has accused Zelenskyy of starting the war and called him a dictator. Both statements echo the Kremlin's talking points about the Ukrainian leader and the war that began when Russia invaded the country in 2022.
After Trump's statements, House Speaker Mike Johnson also said that there was no appetite in Congress for a new bill to help Ukraine.
Trump inherited the authority to send more than $3.8 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine from Pentagon stockpiles without congressional approval, although administration officials are likely to ask lawmakers to replenish US stockpiles if such a decision is made.
European assistance
European leaders held a series of meetings last week to plan how they can support Ukraine in the event of a US troops withdrawal. The continent has also supplied Ukraine with some of its most effective weapons, including much of its modern artillery, medium-range air defense, and cruise missiles. However, analysts doubt Europe's ability to fill the gap created by the loss of US supplies.
According to Ukrainian officials, Ukraine currently produces 2.5 million artillery and mortar shells a year. As of September, the United States had sent about 3 million artillery shells to Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. The EU, by comparison, has increased its production of artillery shells to 1.4 million in 2024 and is aiming for 2 million this year.
According to analysts, the biggest problem will be the lack of American air defense systems, which will force Ukraine to decide which of its territories to defend and which to leave under threat. For example, only the United States produces Patriot air defense systems that can shoot down Russian ballistic missiles.
The loss of the US Army's tactical missile system, known as ATACMS, would also be a blow. Its range of up to 300 km made it particularly effective for striking Russian supply lines, although the Biden administration has limited the targets it could hit in Russia.
Some analysts also question whether Ukraine will retain access to SpaceX's Starlink Internet service, a key battlefield advantage that is partially funded by the Pentagon. Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX, is a close ally of Trump.
