Ukraine expects to reach significantly improved operational position by June 2024

According to ISW assessments, the Russian military command will likely consider significant changes to the large-scale offensive operation it is expected to launch in June, although it may still proceed as planned.

Ukrainian forces are likely to benefit from sufficient US security assistance to deter further Russian operations in June 2024. According to the Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine. Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, this is the likely month when Russian forces will begin their anticipated large-scale summer offensive.

The Russian military is likely to have concluded that Ukrainian forces will not be able to defend against current and future Russian offensives due to delays or complete cessation of US military aid. This assumption was likely an integral part of Russia's operational planning for this summer.

Russian forces are creating reserves at the operational and strategic levels to support their expected summer offensive efforts, but they are likely doing so on the assumption that even poorly trained and poorly equipped Russian forces will be able to advance against Ukrainian forces lacking the necessary funds, artillery, and air defense ammunition.

Ukraine is also addressing its personnel issues and is likely to continue to rotate units for rest and replenishment, although significant time is needed for these efforts to have a large-scale effect.

Ukrainian officials have previously stated that Russian forces are likely to continue conducting offensive operations this summer aimed at capturing the remaining Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but may also launch an offensive operation to capture Kharkiv.

Ukrainian forces, with improved material and technical support and personnel, are likely to hold the front line in June 2024, undermining this operational objective of simultaneous Russian offensive operations on a broader front.

The Russian military command will likely have to reconsider whether its planned areas and objectives for its summer offensive efforts have been achieved and whether the current means of concentration and preparation of Russian forces are sufficient to carry out the planned offensive operations in light of the expected resumption of US security assistance to Ukraine.

ISW does not provide any forecasts on the decisions the Russians will make now.