UK Intelligence reports shift in Russian-Ukrainian frontline situation

Russian forces have focused their main offensive in the Kursk region. In other areas of the front, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have gained opportunities for counterattacks, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
In particular, Russian troops are increasing pressure on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk salient from the west, north, and east. Ukrainian forces likely maintain control over around 300 square kilometers of territory in Kursk.
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Meanwhile, Russian forces have been conducting fewer offensive operations in other areas of the front compared to late 2024 and early 2025.
UK intelligence also reports that near Pokrovsk, where Russian forces are concentrated, the Ukrainian military has launched several counterattacks around the areas of Pischane, Udachny, Shevchenko, and to the south of the T-05-06 logistical highway.
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"Opportunities for Ukrainian counteroffensives have been improved by the reduced number of ground offensives being carried out by Russia. Russian logistics supply lines on the Pokrovsk axis have also been degraded by Ukrainian First Person View Uncrewed Aerial System attacks," the UK Ministry of Defense said.
In February 2025, Russia's average daily losses were 1,255 military personnel, the lowest daily average since August 2024.
The total number of registered Russian losses in February was 35,140 soldiers, approximately 13,000 fewer than in January when the second-highest monthly loss figure was recorded.
According to UK intelligence, Russia's loss rate is likely to continue exceeding 1,000 personnel per day in March 2025, while assaults by hasty infantry are expected to persist across multiple directions.