Trump's trade war: Experts see risks for Ukraine and unexpected benefit

Trump's tariffs – Beginning of global crisis?

According to Oleh Ustenko, Former economic advisor to the President of Ukraine, the crisis is beginning - the world economy is entering a downward spiral, as the collapse of stock markets brings the same trend to raw material and commodity markets.

"The decline in both stock and commodity markets creates an additional wave of panic. The world economy is entering a downward spiral, and uncertainty is growing about what central banks' policies will be," said Oleh Ustenko.

How global crisis to affect Ukraine

The fall of stock markets in the US, Asian countries, and the introduction of tariffs by Trump will also affect European countries.

"If the situation on European markets worsens, and it is currently worsening (as of April 7 - ed.), this means that risks could arise for us, especially in terms of attracting additional financial support from Europe," Ustenko explains.

The former economic advisor also added that the main consequence of the economic crisis for Ukraine will be a reduction in access to capital, as many investors will scale back their projects and will not take on investment risks, including in Ukraine. The drop in prices on global commodity markets will lead to a reduction in revenue from Ukrainian raw material exports.

"Our budget's possibilities will worsen," added Ustenko.

Possible impact on Ukraine's metallurgy and agricultural sectors

According to the Head of the Expert and Analytical Council of the Ukrainian Analytical Center Borys Kushniruk, the decline in prices on global commodity markets leads to cheaper metal products, which are one of Ukraine's key exports.

Borys Kushniruk noted that, amid the general drop in raw material prices, agricultural product prices could also fall.

"Agricultural product prices are very dependent on the harvest in a given year, so despite the drop in raw material prices, agricultural products may or may not be affected. It all depends on natural conditions and the harvest," he said.

Are falling oil prices blow for Russia?

A positive aspect of the significant drop in raw material prices, particularly oil, according to Kushniruk, will be a decrease in Russia's income, as the aggressor country will lose some of its revenue from hydrocarbon exports, which finance the war in Ukraine.

"A drop in oil prices to $40 per barrel would make continuing the war simply impossible. From this point, it could be a positive outcome," the expert commented. The drop in oil prices will also result in lower fuel prices, which Ukraine imports in large quantities, as well as a reduction in gas station prices.

As of April 10, the price of the benchmark Brent crude oil on international markets fell to $63.8 per barrel, which is 3.5% lower than the previous day. The price of Russian Urals crude oil fell to $65.5 per barrel.

On April 2, US President Donald Trump announced the introduction of 10% tariffs on nearly all countries starting April 9, with increases for some partners, including China - 34%. This led to a drop in stock markets worldwide, including in the US and China.

On April 8, Trump raised the tariff for China by 50% to 104%. In response, China imposed a tariff on US goods at 84%.

On April 9, the US President decided to raise the tariff for China again to 125%, effective the same day. Trump cited a "lack of respect" from Beijing as the reason for the decision, meaning disagreement with the White House's policies and retaliatory tariffs.

Trump also reduced tariffs for countries that entered negotiations with the US and did not respond with retaliatory steps, lowering them to a minimum of 10% for 90 days. This period, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, will be used for negotiations. Trump stated that the US is in talks with over 75 countries worldwide.