Trump's bluff exposed? China spots US weaknesses in Iran — Politico
Photo: Donald Trump and Xi Jinping (Getty Images)
The United States is exposing its vulnerabilities in the conflict with Tehran, giving China a unique opportunity to prepare for a potential clash with the US military. Beijing is watching as Washington gets caught in a trap in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Politico.
The Chinese military has noticed a shift in the Pentagon’s priorities. Containing Beijing is no longer the primary goal in the agency’s documents. This is a dangerous signal, as Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping on May 13, and Beijing will hold all the advantages in these talks, the article notes.
"The Chinese would be well within their right to say, 'What do you have left to build deterrence with?'" says a former defense official. "In order for a grand bargain to work, you would have to have the muscle to put behind it. You can’t bluff on this question."
What interests Chinese generals
China is studying how American commanders plan operations. They are interested in everything: the pace of missile strikes, logistics, American intelligence-gathering methods, and so on.
"China’s military is absolutely closely studying our operations against Iran to identify vulnerabilities they can exploit in a conflict with the United States," says a Defense Department official speaking on condition of anonymity.
The Pentagon continues to show good results in individual battles. However, the overall strategy is suffering. China wants to understand whether this is solely the fault of the current administration or a broader crisis in the American way of waging war.
Drones vs. missiles: How Beijing adapts Iranian experience
Iran has demonstrated the effectiveness of low-cost technologies. Tehran has learned to penetrate air defenses with massive attacks by kamikaze drones. And China could go much further, as its capabilities are far greater.
Becca Wasser, a defense strategy expert, believes that China will deploy its massive missile arsenal. Beijing doesn’t even need drones. They can overwhelm radars with missiles.
"They don’t need to use drones to confuse air defense radars and overwhelm systems in quite the same way," she says.
China's weaknesses
Beijing also has its problems. The Chinese military has had no combat experience since 1979, following the war in Vietnam. In addition, Xi Jinping is conducting large-scale purges: since 2022, more than 100 high-ranking officers have been removed from their posts.
Despite this, China has studied the US for decades and knows how Americans project power. Beijing is studying the US’s dependence on tankers and military bases. Chinese generals understand the principles of airstrikes and cyber warfare: for them, the war in Iran is a free training ground.
US arsenals depletion
The Pentagon’s main concern is empty warehouses, as the US is expending expensive Tomahawk missiles and Patriot systems on the Iranian front. These are enormous resources, as every such missile means one less weapon available to defend Taiwan.
"They know that every missile being used in Iran is a missile that can’t be used to deter in the Indo-Pacific," the former official emphasizes. Beijing is simply waiting for US stocks to run out.
US-Iran standoff
The US President has received yet another proposal from Tehran regarding peace talks. However, Donald Trump once again stated that he does not like it. He did not, however, specify exactly what he finds objectionable.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also stated that the Israel-US war against Iran is not yet over. According to him, there is still a lot of work ahead.
