Trump’s advisers in Munich: What their talks on Ukraine may signal

Contents

• Ukraine – US
• US – Russia
• US – Europe

The activity of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe to end the war is reaching a new level.

Even before Trump’s inauguration, RBC-Ukraine reported that his team lacked a clear vision for ending the war. The US president’s advisors have come to realize that the situation in Ukraine is far more complex than, for example, the Israel-Gaza conflict. Moreover, Ukraine and Russia have too much agency for a simple solution.

There are only general possible outlines: freezing hostilities and postponing Ukraine’s NATO membership. Last week, Bloomberg added further details, reporting that the plan may involve freezing the conflict, leaving Russian-occupied territories in an undefined status, and providing Ukraine with security guarantees that would prevent a new attack from Moscow.

At the same time, contacts between most parties involved in the war have intensified.

Ukraine – US

The dialogue between Ukraine and Trump’s team has sharply intensified since early February.

The head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, spoke with Trump’s National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, discussing the battlefield situation, mobilization progress, and key challenges for Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that he is in dialogue with Trump’s Special Representative on Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, whose visit to Kyiv is expected in late February. Trump mentioned the possibility of meeting Zelenskyy this week, but later, the Ukrainian Presidential Office clarified that contacts are currently happening at the team level.

Ukraine’s leadership is trying to appeal to Trump’s pragmatism. On February 3, Trump expressed interest in Ukraine’s rare earth metal deposits, which are critically important for high-tech industries in the US Currently, the vast majority of the world’s reserves are controlled by China — Trump’s main geopolitical rival.

In response, Zelenskyy invited American companies to invest in Ukraine.

"Why? Because if this remains under Russian control, other countries and companies will move in—most likely Iran and North Korea," Zelenskyy emphasized.

The Ukrainian government also publicly proposed other initiatives: investment in Ukrainian nuclear power plants and using Ukraine’s gas storage facilities for US natural gas destined for Europe.

Most of these ideas are long-term strategies, but the gas storage proposal is something that could be implemented much sooner.

According to Mykhailo Gonchar, president of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI," this idea has been around for a while — since the first commercial shipments of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe.

"The first LNG tanker arrived during Trump's presidency in 2017, unloading at terminals in the Netherlands and Poland. Even then, there were discussions about using Ukrainian storage facilities," Gonchar explained.

He noted that interest in Ukrainian gas storage peaked in 2020, when 10 billion cubic meters of gas were stored there (out of a total capacity of 31 billion). However, interest later declined due to security risks — Russian attacks have repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Nevertheless, these are just proposals. It remains uncertain whether they can compete with what Putin might offer Trump.

US – Russia

Putin can promise Trump as much as Ukraine. And probably more. There are plenty of points of contact between the United States and Russia. From nuclear weapons or cybersecurity to Russia's ability to influence Iran and North Korea. On all of these issues, the dialogue between Russia and the United States stopped long ago, but during Trump's first term, it was quite lively. Finally, we should not forget about the Chinese factor.

Trump has repeatedly confirmed that talks with Russia are progressing "quite well," just like those with Ukraine. On February 9, he acknowledged having a personal phone call with Putin.

A face-to-face meeting between the two leaders is also part of Trump’s plans. According to Reuters, high-ranking Russian officials recently visited Saudi Arabia and the UAE — both potential venues for a Trump-Putin summit.

However, it is unclear whether Putin is looking for a quick resolution.

"At this stage, we do not see Russia seriously engaging in peace talks," British Foreign Secretary David Lammy stated at a press conference in Kyiv on February 5. Zelenskyy echoed this view, pointing to Russia’s ongoing military buildup as further evidence that Putin does not want peace.

Russia now has the time and resources to continue the war. As previously reported by RBC-Ukraine, the Russian economy has been fully militarized and can sustain the war for at least another year. Meanwhile, Russian forces are making slow but steady advances on the frontlines.

According to political analyst Maksym Nesvitailov, Russia is stalling negotiations to see whether Trump’s policies will be effective.

"The Russian Federation is determined to delay the negotiations as much as possible in order to see what will happen in the world and to see how effective Trump will really be, or whether his policy will stop and not produce concrete results," Maksym Nesvitailov, a political analyst at the Center for Scaling Technology Solutions, told RBC-Ukraine.

This does not suit the United States, judging by the rhetoric of Trump and his team about the need to end the war quickly. So far, the US president has, on the one hand, expressed respect for Putin personally and, on the other hand, threatened tough measures.

US – Europe

This week, several major international events will occur in Europe, including the Artificial Intelligence Summit in Paris and the Munich Security Conference. On this occasion, several representatives from Trump's team are expected to arrive. In particular, the visits of US Vice President J.D. Vance and Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg have been confirmed.

While Vance’s agenda covers a broader range of issues—from trade tariffs to the role of European countries in NATO — Kellogg’s mission will be more narrowly focused. Trump’s special representative stated that he will concentrate on discussing options for achieving peace in Ukraine, while a specific plan for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war will be presented personally by Donald Trump at a later date.

"I believe that for Kellogg, this Munich Security Conference will, in many ways, be a very convenient opportunity to gather the opinions of European leaders regarding how they envision the end of this war," Maxim Nesvitailov commented to RBC-Ukraine.

For European leaders, the arrival of Kellogg and Vance carries significant importance. Many European capitals fear that Trump and Putin might arrange a "new Yalta Conference" and reach an agreement without taking into account the interests of Ukraine and Europe as a whole.

"The biggest flaw, as I see it, in the American approach is the attempt to equate the aggressor and the victim of aggression. As if some kind of slaughter is happening, with two sides clashing, this immediately distorts the plan and gives an advantage to the aggressor. Therefore, in any case, this is unacceptable for us and Europe," Mykhailo Gonchar emphasized in a conversation with RBC-Ukraine.

The significance of the risk of such a scenario may become clearer closer to spring. The key task for the Ukrainian authorities remains ensuring the continued implementation of the principle "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine."

Sources: statements from US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, articles from Reuters, Politico, and the New York Post, as well as comments from an analyst at the Center for Scaling Technological Solutions Maxim Nesvitailov and President of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" Mykhailo Gonchar, were used.