Tropical rains may shift northward: Which countries will face disaster
Climate change is affecting the whole world (photo: Getty Images)
The results of computer modeling suggest that climate change may force tropical rains to shift northward in the coming decades.
RBC-Ukraine explains what scientists have learned and which regions of the planet could be most affected by climate change.
The main thing about the study
The results of modeling conducted by Wei Liu, a climate, atmospheric, and sustainable development researcher at the University of California, Riverside (USA), and his team suggest that uncontrolled carbon emissions by humans could force tropical rainfall to shift northward in the coming decades.
This will have a serious impact on nature, as well as on the economy and economy of the regions located near the Earth's equator.
According to the study, the “shift” in rainfall will occur amid complex atmospheric changes, as carbon emissions significantly affect the formation of intertropical zones.
Scientists note that these zones are “atmospheric engines” that cause about a third of global precipitation.
“This climate model included many components of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land. They all interact with each other. In essence, we are trying to model the real world. In the model, we can increase our carbon dioxide emissions from pre-industrial levels to much higher levels,” Liu said.
Which regions may suffer the most
According to the researchers, the regions on both sides of the equator are likely to suffer the most from such changes:
- Central African countries
- the northern part of South America
- Pacific island states
Scientists remind us that the main crops grown in the tropics include coffee, cocoa, palm oil, bananas, sugar cane, tea, mangoes, and pineapples.
Against the backdrop of climate change, humanity may face problems with their cultivation in the future, which may even lead to a shortage of such crops.
At the same time, scientists note that the shift of the tropics to the north will last only for about 20 years.
As you know, ocean currents play an important role in shaping the weather and climate on Earth, as they move huge volumes of water around the planet.
Therefore, later, as the southern oceans warm, these zones of convergence (an evolutionary process that leads to the formation of a set of similar traits in representatives of unrelated groups) will “stretch” back to the south. They may remain there for another millennium.
Why intertropical convergence zones are important
Scientists explained that intertropical convergence zones are areas along or near the equator where trade winds (winds that blow between the tropics throughout the year) from the northern and southern hemispheres meet. There, they rise to cooler altitudes, sucking in large amounts of moisture from the oceans.
When this humid air cools at high altitudes, storm clouds form, which contribute to heavy rains.This forms the rainforests, which can receive up to 4.3 meters of rainfall per year.
“Changes in rainfall are very important. This is a region with very heavy rainfall. Therefore, a small shift will cause big changes in agriculture and the economy of society. This will affect many regions,” Liu emphasized.
He clarified that, according to the results of the study, convergence zones may shift northward by an average of 0.2 degrees.
Earlier, we reported that a new Ring of Fire may appear on Earth, threatening one of the oceans.
