Second peace summit: Expert on Russia attending it and whether it will be held in fall
The expert assessed whether the second peace summit will take place in the fall and whether Russia will be present (president.gov.ua)
If the second peace summit takes place by the end of 2024, it will be a significant achievement. At the same time, there is a high likelihood that Russia will not participate in the event if it does take place, citing the RBC-Ukraine article "From battlefield to homefront: What military, economic and energy challenges Ukraine faces this fall."
"I say this cautiously. If it happens, it definitely won't be before the US election. So, we're looking at late November or early December. If it's not possible to hold it by mid-December, then it will only happen next year," said Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Center for Applied Political Studies "PENTA", clarifying that the Christmas holiday period begins in mid-December, and early January will be filled with other summits.
The political scientist noted that peace summits are an unacceptable scenario for Russia because they undermine Russia's negotiation strategy—Russians view them as a foreign platform where they would be pressured to partially agree to Ukrainian terms. Therefore, there is a high likelihood that Russia will ignore the second summit as well.
"The only possible exception is if China decides to participate and convinces Russia that it should do the same," Fesenko emphasized.
Second peace summit
According to the head of the Presidential Office, Andrii Yermak, the summit will take place after the development of a joint peace plan with 10 points based on the Ukrainian formula. Earlier, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the plan would be ready by the end of November. However, it is still unknown which country will host the meeting.
Three meetings at the level of working subgroups are planned to develop the plan. The first—on energy security—was held online last Friday, August 23. Conferences in Türkiye and Canada will focus on food security and the exchange of prisoners. Afterward, Ukraine hopes to present the summit with a complete plan and reach an agreement with the entire world.
Participants in the Swiss meeting insist that Russia should be represented at the second summit. According to Yermak, this is quite possible, and they indeed want to present the plan to a Russian representative. However, this does not mean the beginning of peace negotiations. Even before the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in the Kursk region, Moscow refused to participate, and now it constantly speaks of the impossibility of any negotiations.
First peace summit
The first peace summit on Ukraine was held on June 15-16, with over 100 countries participating. More details on the outcomes of the first peace summit can be found in the RBC-Ukraine article.
