Sanctions to trigger Russian economic decline within a year: Expert insight
Photo: Russia's economy will start to fall in 2025 (Getty Images)
Svitlana Romanko, founder of Razom We Stand, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine, stated that sanctions targeting Russia's oil and gas sector will lead to a decline in the aggressor country's economy. This will happen shortly.
"I can say that within the next year, we will definitely feel the real decline of Russia’s economy," she said.
According to her, if the European Union imposes a full ban on Russian gas, as it plans to do by February 24, "Russia will completely lose the premium European market by the end and will no longer supply liquefied gas or any other type."
"Of course, if Ukraine halts the transit of Russian oil through the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, we will help Europe a little, and this gives us great chances," she added.
As Romanko noted, the TurkStream pipeline is not currently transporting much gas. "And I am confident it can be shut down with American sanctions, particularly from the G7. Because Turkey, as we understand its political position, will not block the pipeline themselves," the expert said.
She emphasized that over the next five years, Russia will not be able, either materially, financially, or infrastructurally, to construct new bypass pipelines, such as completing the Power of Siberia project, "because access to technologies is limited, including for liquefied gas."
According to her, if Russia suddenly decides to invest in such a losing venture, these expenses will detract from its wartime economy.
"But China does not need LNG. So this will not happen. Even though exceptions have been made regarding gas sanctions due to their heavy dependence, Japan is also starting to refuse Russian gas. They also understand that no dealings can be had with Russia," Romanko added.
The five-year contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom expired on January 1, 2025. Ukraine shut off the gas valve at 7:00 a.m. on January 1, depriving Moscow of approximately $5-7 billion in annual revenue.
However, Ukraine continues to transit Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline to Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. According to estimates by the Razumkov Center, this provides Moscow with about €6 billion in annual revenue.
Additionally, on January 10, the United States announced new large-scale sanctions against Russia's energy sector. The aim is to hinder Moscow in its war against Ukraine by depriving it of billions of dollars monthly.
