S&P forecasts war's impact on Ukraine's economy
Photo: S&P assessed the consequences of the war for Ukraine (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings notes a high degree of uncertainty regarding the scale, outcomes, and consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
"If the economy started to recover, considering the toll the war has taken on Ukraine's economy, we do not expect real GDP to recover to its pre-war level in our forecast period through 2027," the statement reads.
The agency notes that Ukraine's debt restructuring is occurring amid significant economic, external, and fiscal pressures caused by Russian military aggression. Areas occupied by Russian forces account for about 15% of Ukraine's territory and 8-9% of its pre-war GDP. Nearly a third of Ukraine's population has been displaced, with around 15% having left the country and now being refugees.
"Irrespective of the duration of military hostilities, related risks are likely to remain in place for some time," the agency's analysts added.
It is worth noting that S&P Global Ratings has temporarily downgraded Ukraine's rating to SD (Selective Default). The rating will be upgraded once debt restructuring is complete.
Earlier, Fitch Ratings also downgraded Ukraine's rating due to debt restructuring. The agency forecasts a protracted war between Russia and Ukraine, expecting the conflict to continue through 2024 and 2025 within its current parameters.
