Russian military casualties could exceed 2 million killed and wounded - The Economist

The Economist revealed its new estimates on October 30. For comparison, the outlet's previous estimates were as follows:

• July 2025 – 190,000–350,000 killed, 0.9–1.3 million killed and wounded;

• May 2026 – 280,000–518,000 killed, 1.1–1.5 million killed and wounded;

• October 2026 – 374,000–770,000 killed, 1.4–2.1 million killed and wounded.

Since May alone, the lower end of the estimated death toll has increased by 94,000, while the upper end has risen by 252,000. Over 15 months, the lower estimate has nearly doubled, while the upper estimate has increased 2.2 times.

Russia does not publish accurate official casualty figures. Therefore, The Economist uses a statistical model combining data from Western intelligence agencies, defense ministries, and independent researchers. These figures are cross-referenced with the outlet's own war tracker, which takes into account the intensity of fighting and changes along the front line.

Ukrainian data also point to record losses among Russian forces. According to estimates by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as of October 29, Russia had lost 49,040 troops in October alone. This is the highest monthly figure since the start of the full-scale invasion, even though three days remained until the end of the month. The previous record of 48,670 personnel was recorded in December 2024.

Drones account for a significant share of Russian casualties. Since the beginning of 2026, Ukraine's Defense Forces have killed or wounded 302,000 Russian troops using drones.

Moscow, meanwhile, conceals its actual losses and does not publish its own statistics.