Russian aviation near collapse as spare parts run out

By 2026, Russia's civilian fleet could shrink by more than half due to a chronic shortage of spare parts caused by international sanctions, according to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service.
The situation is highlighted by a recent deal between the cargo airline Volga-Dnepr and Aeroflot. According to the documents, Aeroflot will receive eight Boeing aircraft solely for dismantling to provide spare parts and maintain the technical condition of its existing fleet.
Under the contract, six cargo Boeing 737-800BCF and two Boeing 747-400 will be transferred via financial leasing to Aeroflot’s subsidiaries, Pobeda and Rossiya. The deal is valued at around $130 million, with financing provided by Russia’s National Wealth Fund.
At the beginning of 2022, Russia operated approximately 1,500–1,800 Western-made civilian aircraft. However, international sanctions have since drastically reduced that number. The ban on supplying new planes and original components is forcing carriers to ground some aircraft, source spare parts through "grey" channels, or dismantle functioning planes to repair others.
The agreement between Volga-Dnepr and Aeroflot is the first case in Russia where a passenger carrier receives cargo aircraft solely for dismantling for parts. In the long term, this is expected to further shrink the fleet, raise ticket prices, and weaken civil aviation. According to intelligence estimates, if sanctions remain in place, Russia’s fleet could shrink by more than half by 2026.
Earlier reports noted that Moscow appealed to ICAO to ease the sanctions imposed after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia is requesting the removal of restrictions on the supply of spare parts for civilian aircraft, arguing that the current limitations reduce flight safety.
Additionally, Russia has challenged the ICAO Council's decision regarding its involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Donbas in the International Court of Justice.