Russia tries to keep troops in Syria: ISW names reason

According to sources cited by Bloomberg, Moscow is close to reaching an agreement with the new Syrian government that would allow it to retain a certain number of personnel and military equipment in the country.

One of the sources stated that Russia hopes to maintain its naval and air bases, which it had been using in Syria before the current president, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, led the rebel offensive that overthrew Bashar al-Assad in December last year.

However, Bloomberg notes that there are no guarantees that the ongoing negotiations will result in a signed agreement. Nonetheless, the first-ever phone conversation between Putin and Syria's new president on February 12 suggests an increasing likelihood of such an outcome. A finalized agreement would mark Russia’s second major foreign policy success this month, following the US announcement that it would begin peace talks with Moscow on how to end the war in Ukraine.

This also signals that Moscow is improving its relations with Syria’s new rulers, even though Assad, their sworn enemy, survived the Syrian civil war thanks to Russia’s unwavering support and is now in exile in Moscow.

"Many European officials were keen for Russian forces to leave Syria. But others, especially from southern Europe, worried Russia might refocus on Libya if it lost its naval and air bases in Syria. The two military facilities have allowed Russia to project influence in Africa as well as the Middle East, and losing them would be a significant setback for the Kremlin," Bloomberg states.

According to Bloomberg, after Assad’s regime collapsed, Türkiye, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia strengthened their ties with Syria, while Russia and Iran’s influence weakened.

The report recalled that in January, Moscow’s attempts to negotiate with President Al-Sharaa to retain control over Tartus - its only port in the Mediterranean - and the nearby Khmeimim airbase faced obstacles. In response, Putin expressed readiness to contribute to Syria’s reconstruction.

"Last week, during their call, Putin told al-Sharaa he was ready to provide aid and help with essential trade to bolster the shattered Syrian economy. Days later, Syria’s central bank flew in fresh local banknotes from Russia to alleviate a shortage of cash," Bloomberg reported.

Bloomberg also noted that Syria lacks the funds for reconstruction, and the new government has inherited billions in debt to Russia and Iran.

Fight against the Islamic State

Sources from Bloomberg suggest that another reason for Russia's desire to maintain a limited military presence in Syria could be to assist in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) group, which is active in the eastern part of the country.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that Syria's interim government is trying to gather human resources to support operations against IS, as it faces political and material challenges in forming and training a new Syrian army.

However, the Institute points out that Russia's involvement in Assad’s campaign against IS has not been able to effectively eliminate the group in Syria. Russian airstrikes have proven far more effective against Syrian opposition groups on behalf of the regime than against Islamists.

The ISW believes that the scale of Russia's deployment in Syria will impact the success of any Russian operations against IS. However, it remains unclear whether a reduced military presence would be more effective against the Islamists than the Russian forces during the peak of their deployment in Syria.

"US Central Command announced in July 2024 that ISIS is attempting to reconstitute in Syria following several years of decreased capability. Russia would by no means provide a suitable replacement for the United States or SDF in counter-ISIS operations in the face of ISIS reconstitution efforts," the Institute for the Study of War concludes.

Change of power in Syria and the fate of Russian troops

This December, in a dramatic turn of events, the fighters of the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham group launched an attack on the largest cities in Syria, eventually capturing the capital, Damascus, on December 8. The Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, along with his family, fled to Russia.

Subsequently, the Kremlin announced its intention to relinquish control over its military bases in the cities of Hmeymim and Tartus.

Just a few days ago, Russian ships were spotted off the coast of the UK, reportedly transporting ammunition out of Syria.

Meanwhile, overnight, the Russian airbase in Khmeimim was attacked by rockets and drones. The attack is believed to have been carried out by Israel, with the likely cause being a shipment of weapons intended for the Lebanese Hezbollah.