Russia's attack on NATO: Expert names condition and several scenarios
Expert explained the scenarios and conditions under which Russia would attack NATO (Getty Images)
Russia could potentially launch an attack on NATO countries if it has the resources for another military conflict, besides the ongoing war against Ukraine. This could occur following the so-called Crimean scenario. However, such an attack could unfold through several scenarios beyond the Crimean one.
This assessment is outlined in an RBC-Ukraine article "How Königsberg became Kaliningrad and whether it could spark Russia-NATO war."
According to Oleksandr Musiienko, the head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies, the type of war considered is crucial. While a full-scale aggression, like the one seen in the war with Ukraine, is unlikely, a conflict following the Crimean scenario is entirely feasible.
"If we take a war with the use of aviation, long-range missiles, cyberattacks, provoking unrest within NATO countries, with 'little green men' who can land in a conventional Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia, then it is possible. The entire Russian military machine is preparing to wage a war against NATO," Musiienko said in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
Possible scenarios
Crimean scenario
According to the analyst, there are several conflict scenarios between NATO and Russia, one of which is the previously mentioned Crimean scenario.
"For example, a month or two later, in Latvia, where there is a Russian-speaking community, some kind of unrest begins, during which helicopters from Belarus arrive, from which "little green men" land and begin to support the unrest. At this time, NATO will try to decide whether it was Russia that attacked or some terrorists," he explained.
Attempted landing on Gotland
Another scenario, according to Musiienko, is an attempted Russian landing on Gotland (the largest Swedish island in the Baltic Sea), using the Baltic Sea as a base. Alternatively, Russian ships could block Denmark's exit to the Baltic Sea to see how NATO would react - whether it would shell the Russian ships or try to force them back to the Baltic Sea.
Aggression towards Poland
Russian aggression towards Poland is totally possible, the expert believes. Such aggression is always considered from two potential directions - Belarus and Kaliningrad.
"And, accordingly, this Suwalki corridor. This is the most threatening direction," he explained.
