Russia refuses to reconsider rerms for negotiations with Ukraine – ISW
Photo: Valentina Matviyenko (Getty Images)
Russia continues to insist that negotiations with Ukraine must be based solely on the demands it presented during the Istanbul talks in 2022. The aggressor refuses any compromises even though Ukraine has liberated a significant amount of its territory from Russian occupation since then, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.
Analysts highlight that a senior Russian official reiterated the conditions set by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. In particular, the Russian Federation Council Speaker, Valentina Matviyenko, voiced this.
On Tuesday, December 24, Matviyenko stated that Russia is open to compromises in negotiations with Ukraine but will strictly adhere to the conditions it outlined during the Istanbul talks in March 2022. The Russian Federation Council Speaker added that Russia will not deviate from these terms by "one iota."
The conditions put forward during the negotiations in Istanbul indicated that:
- Ukraine would be a permanently neutral state that could not join NATO;
- Imposed limitations on the Ukrainian military similar to those imposed by the Treaty of Versailles on Germany after World War I, restricting Ukraine's Armed Forces to 85,000 soldiers.
Russia's demands in Istanbul were largely more detailed versions of those Putin had made months before launching a full-scale invasion in 2022, including "demilitarization" and neutrality for Ukraine.
Analysts noted that Matviyenko repeated Putin's demand, which he made during his online speech on December 19. Other senior officials will likely make statements similar to those of domestic and foreign audiences in the coming weeks.
ISW continues to believe that the increased rhetoric by Russian officials touting Putin's demands reflects the Russian leader's confidence that he can defeat Ukraine militarily. This is despite the enormous losses Ukraine has inflicted on Russian forces.
According to the survey, most Ukrainians (73%) believe that Russia must fulfill certain conditions for Ukraine to agree to peace talks.
Among the conditions that, according to respondents, Russia must fulfill to start peace talks the following are mentioned:
- cessation of shelling of Ukrainian territories that are not yet occupied and where there are no hostilities (54%);
- withdrawal of troops by Russia from the entire territory of Ukraine within internationally recognized borders (46.5%).
