Russia ramps up weapons production and prepares for new war - ISW

According to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, affiliated with Russia’s Ministry of Defense, the country’s industrial output grew by 2.6% between April and May 2025. This growth was largely driven by a sharp increase in the production of defense-related goods.

Aviation

In May 2025, the monthly output of aviation equipment rose by 16.9% compared to April and was 1.6 times higher than the same period in 2024. Additionally, from February to May of this year, Russia expanded its production capacity in both the aviation and shipbuilding sectors by 16%.

"Data from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)-affiliated Center of Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting published on June 26 indicates that Russia increased its industrial production by 2.6 percent between April and May 2025 and that the majority of this increase is due to a "sharp" increase in Russia's defense industrial output," ISW notes.

Armored vehicles

Satellite imagery of specific Russian armored vehicle repair plants shows that Russia is increasing its production of infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). According to analytical sources monitoring Russian defense industry activity, the country is now capable of producing and refurbishing more IFVs than before.

The reduced use of armored vehicles and tanks during the winter of 2024–2025 has allowed Russia to accumulate reserves of such equipment.

KurgaMashZavod remains the only publicly known producer of Soviet-era BMP-3 vehicles. However, satellite imagery shows that some repair facilities have already depleted much of their old equipment stock. At least one plant in Rubtsovsk (Altai Krai) has significantly upgraded its production capacity.

Additional analyses suggest Russia has also made progress in ramping up production of T-90M tanks—evidence of sustained long-term investment in heavy armored equipment.

"It remains unclear whether Russia is aiming to stockpile materiel in preparation for a larger offensive operation against Ukraine in the near to medium term or to reconstitute the Russian military in preparation for broader future conflict with NATO," ISW notes.

Risk of war with NATO

Western leaders have increasingly warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a prolonged, large-scale war with the North Atlantic Alliance.

NATO and EU leadership suggest that such a conflict could erupt between 2028 and 2030.

If a full-scale war breaks out in Europe, global GDP losses could reach as high as $1.5 trillion.

US magazine Newsweek has published a map outlining potential frontlines in the event of Russian aggression.

Recently, Putin signed a decree allowing for the requisition of defense industry assets during wartime.