Russia preparing ground for mobilization: New signs spotted by intelligence
Photo: Propaganda billboard advertising the Russian army in Moscow (Getty Images)
Russia is showing increasing signs of strengthening its mobilization readiness. The Kremlin looks for new ways to replenish its military ranks, according to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service.
Army recruitment slows
According to intelligence, one of the clearest indicators is the slowdown in contract recruitment.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said that around 200,000 people signed contracts with the Defense Ministry between January and June 2026, while another 16,000 joined volunteer units.
During the same period last year, more than 210,000 people signed military contracts and about 18,000 joined volunteer units. German researcher Janis Klug estimates that the actual decline in recruitment during the spring may have reached 20%.
More signs of mobilization preparations
Against this backdrop, Russia has seen a sharp increase in job postings related to military registration and enlistment.
By the end of July, more than 2,500 such vacancies had been posted on the HeadHunter employment platform, with nearly one-third published during the previous week alone.
The positions are being advertised in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Samara, Nizhny Novgorod, Belgorod, Kazan, Ufa, Krasnodar, Rostov-on-Don, Yekaterinburg, and Khabarovsk. Major employers include Roscosmos, Russian Post, and Rostelecom.
The Foreign Intelligence Service also reported that the governor of the Moscow region has expanded the powers of the regional headquarters responsible for mobilization and martial law. Meanwhile, Russia's Ministry of Labor has advised regional authorities to prepare migrant workers in advance to replace employees who could be drafted into military service.
Russians grow increasingly concerned
According to the intelligence service, Yandex recorded 1.2 million searches related to mobilization in July.
Over the course of one week, the share of Russians who described the public mood as "anxious" increased from 53% to 57%.
Demand for rental housing in Armenia has also risen above the levels seen in February 2022, suggesting renewed concerns about a possible mobilization wave.
Will Russia launch a new mobilization?
Despite these indicators, the intelligence service says there are currently no signs that Russia is preparing for a large-scale mobilization of reservists.
Procurement of medical supplies and military equipment remains at last year's levels.
The intelligence service believes the Kremlin is unlikely to announce a new wave of mobilization before Russia's parliamentary elections. Instead, authorities are expected to address personnel shortages through higher financial incentives, increased pressure on employers, and the redeployment of troops between military units.
Earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that, amid a shortage of volunteers, Russian authorities are increasingly resorting to coercive recruitment.
According to the outlet, men are being detained on the streets, intimidated, beaten, and threatened with fabricated criminal charges to force them into signing military contracts.
