Russia prepares for oil price plunge to $40 per barrel, intelligence reports
Photo: Russia is preparing for oil prices to fall to $40 per barrel (Getty Images)
Global oil prices could fall to $40–50 per barrel by late 2025 or early 2026, according to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
According to the intelligence agency, the current price per barrel is $66–68, but the market is already experiencing a new price war that threatens further declines in quotations.
The main driver of the drop is the collapse of agreements within OPEC+. Saudi Arabia is significantly increasing production, creating an oversupply in the market.
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At the same time, shale oil exporters are increasing drilling and production despite low prices, intensifying pressure on the market.
Additional risks to prices come from the slowdown in China's economy — one of the largest oil consumers.
Moreover, rising exports of raw materials from Brazil, Guyana, and Norway are further increasing the oversupply.
Unlike previous years, geopolitical risks now have little impact on oil prices, indicating the formation of a new supply and demand balance.
If this trend continues, the Russian fund predicts a "shock" oil price range of $40–50 per barrel, which will significantly affect global economies and the budgets of exporting countries.
Russian economy
It is worth noting that Russia’s largest exporters have cut their planned rail shipment volumes for 2025.
Freight volumes, which reached a 15-year low in 2024, serve as a useful indicator of the state of the manufacturing sector in Russia's export-oriented economy.
Meanwhile, Reuters earlier reported, citing sources, that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is increasingly concerned about the challenges facing Russia's wartime economy.
